Letter to Buhari on Housing and APC’s Incomplete Road Map
As it stands, it seems the Nigeria housing and national urban development policy as reviewed in 2012, even though acknowledged the importance of private sector and the need to capture the low income and the in for male conomy, does lack the strategy to af
Imust once again say congratulations to the APC, President Muhammadu Buhari and the Vice President Prof. Osinbajo for being the “anointed” ones to carry the banner of change for our beloved Nigeria. For this we fought, and I am happy to say, I am one of the millions of the faceless Nigerians that the President acknowledged in his inaugural speech. am of the opinion that it is my active responsibility to give vigorous positive criticism in order to refine and bring about the desired change in Nigeria. Also, to beam the world light on what Nigerians are offered and what we can potentially have. According to the World Bank and the United Nations to mention a few, housing is a confirmed GDP booster in developing countries. Therefore, I dare say, the omission of housing to bring about what seems to be a tripartite APC goal (fix corruption, revive economy and increase capacity) and approach, towards the existing Nigerian situation in the policy road map, is a spectacular misunderstanding and an “under-understanding” of housing benefits. Thus, its omission makes the policy road plan incomplete and it needs to be reviewed.
Whilst the former President Jonathan was giving his exit speech, he reeled out agriculture as part of his achievements and omitted housing. A President should beat their chest on a sector they did excellently well but housing has enjoyed an omission by the outgoing government as an achievement and by the incoming government as a policy intention. Housing in Nigeria has been treated with a sense of mute and casually mentioned in the background, though the housing need is acknowledged there is no adequate action to effect change. Recently, Olisa Agbakoba and Mrs Akon Eyakenyi, former housing minister, re-iterated the dire need of housing for the greater percentage of the Nigerian population and to action policies to combat the emergency housing need level.
Sai Buhari, ‘the provision of suitable and adequate housing’ is entrenched in the constitution. More so, housing serves beyond the function of an accommodation to Nigerians; it is an extension of our socio-cultural being. As such, it is important as a need, fundamental to our socio-cultural character as a nation and remains a social liability for the government. Thus, the policy road map should have utmost attention on how to house the 40 million housing deficit as reviewed by Rotimi Akinlose (Nigerian real estate research specialist) in 2015, originally estimated at 17 million by the World Bank in 2006.
Allow me to lay some statistics Sir, to calibrate the housing problem. As at 2012, according to the UN-Habitat and the World Bank, 70% of Nigerians live in slum-like conditions. Estimating Nigeria’s population at 173 million suggests that collectively about 125 million are living in inadequate housing condition and about 40 million of these are experiencing “housinglessness”. These are disappointing figures for the largest economy in Africa, a G20 member! As at 2012, McKinsey & Company, as expressed by World Bank has put the housing shortage in Nigeria on a red alert. However, this brings an opportunity. Sighting the success in India, the ‘impact of construction of 2 million affordable homes will generate direct employment for 3 million people, indirect employment for 24 million people leading to income increase of 25 billion USD (equivalent to approximately 2% nominal GDP)’. These figures are by no means hypothetical; it is possible to achieve and we are late in doing so. Mexico, with a lesser population of 130 million achieved up to 1.5 million yearly housing provision 5 years ago! More so, according to Mexico’s Institute for Statistics and Geography, published in 2015, housing excited their economy, so much that it triggered a GDP effect more than agriculture or education, and was likened to transport and shipping. It should also be noted that during the recent western economic crash in 2008 that trickled to Africa, Mexico was recording economic boost due to housing. Sai Buhari, I put it to you Sir that housing and its allied sectors can give the desired triple effect to the tripartite objectives of the party “trimultaneously”.
Solid mineral investment is laudable. That said, it would create an uneven job creation because it is location and expertise specific. Agriculture too is fantastic with respect to GDP, economy and job creation. However, in the context of Nigeria, there is no existing culture of agriculture to generate the desired economic impact yet. Dr. Adesina (President, African Development Bank) and former President Jonathan expressed extensively on the successes within the sector, which should be built upon. Without sounding patronising, to think though that the palm kernel plants now will excite the economy tomorrow will be wishful thinking. It appears to me that agriculture is still at its developmental phase and it might not quickly achieve the desired economic impact. For economic stability effect due to the reduction in importation of food, of course agriculture is recommended. Whilst the top economies are graduating from the mantra of agriculture as a GDP booster, Nigeria should not be seen as recycling dated ideas. To excite the economy and to double GDP numbers, we should be thinking beyond agriculture and solid minerals. Housing does have the needed spread because jobs will be created in fair proximity in the area where the buildings are needed. There seems to be a 40 million housing deficit, that is, 40 million houses in demand, which appears to be around 500 billion USD in income increase. That is an economic boom, double digits GDP, bottom to top economics and not top to bottom economic agenda, which has saturated other economies. Housing will for sure jump-start the economy. As an extension, housing should be considered, as an under-pinning to develop the North East of Nigeria, which appears to have been economically deficient for a while.
As it stands, it seems the Nigeria housing and national urban development policy as reviewed in 2012, even though acknowledged the importance of private sector and the need to capture the low income and the informal economy, does lack the strategy to affect the desired housing volume. The government seems to be babysitting the housing policy; it is in a very low gear, producing houses in lukewarm little hundreds and few thousands and in some cases our landscapes seems to bear scars of this botched housing development. There is no housing delivery torque and capacity to drive the country towards achieving over 1 million housing target in a year. The Nigerian housing policy is a good intention, with no strategy and wrong in practice. It is a principally challenged and a disabled policy. As part of the disabled condition of the housing situation, it is assumed that high priced properties results to quality real estate. Most times, they are speculative housing value and the billions of naira ending up in the shadow of the economy. Luxury development should be an income generator in order to deliver affordable social housing. It shouldn’t be the core of housing delivery, which appears to be an effect generated by the existing mortgage system. Sai Buhari, what we need to do is to “pump up the housing volume”.
The present frame of mortgage in Nigeria seems stringent and anti-affordable housing. The real housing value determines a mortgage price, which is spread usually with low interest. However, in Nigeria, what is referred to as mortgages are debt burdens. They are more like high priced “pseudo-mortgages”, disguised as low interest loans, does not translate into housing value and in some cases not even into a house. Rather than being a growth indicator, these mortgages cause a cosmetic effect on the economy. Thus, the existing interpretation of mortgage is pressurising the possibility of affordable housing and by implication exploiting Nigerians. Housing finance should be re-aligned as a strategic vehicle to deliver social interest and affordable housing to the urban poor, to capture all aspect of income earners, including formal and informal, and pointed to cater for all financing relating to housing, including access to funds for developers and different forms of housing loans. The existing mortgages are stacked against the 80% of urban population that needs it most and favours the 20% that needs it less.
With resetting of the housing related policies, which sets the platform for financial and housing schemes for different categories of the population, some acts to protect tenants, transparent land acquisition process and ensuring the standard of housing, we are on the right step. Also, coordinated action on housing delivery and encouragiing local production of building materials, topped with the re-twigging of the existing housing and housing finance parastatals and getting rid of the quangos will position the parastatals for effective delivery. The right housing policy will drive the private sector housing production and not leave that responsibility to the private sector as suggested by the present policy. Also, provide for innovative credit arrangements for a large range of income groups to acquire new homes considering informal economy and how to capture their funds. With this configuration, Nigeria is set for its housing revolution.
As an intellectual distraction, we should be careful of imported ideas or idea promulgators sometimes from other parts of the world. This idea entices the African nations as new or error-proof. I dare say they are not new. They are sometimes recycled, “bend-down-low”, “bosikoro” ideas (the colloquial in this context is to serve as symbolic register to aid the understanding that some imported ideas are at the last phase of their integrity and sometimes not compatible with the realities of the challenges in Nigeria). Also, billions of naira will be invested and unfortunately it would not jump start the economy. I wish there are pro-Nigerians that can negotiate with the “West” or “East” on our terms, take up the responsibility of thinking, and foster genuine and sustainable pro-Nigeria solutions to the Nigerian challenges. A non-populist and an unrepentant optimist about the future of Nigeria, which I see in you, is a breath of fresh air. If we do it right, the world will find us.
A spectacular irony though is, while we are trying to build cities in Nigeria, Africa, to look western and copying and importing “problems”, the western academia are looking towards the emerging African cities for inspiration because their present model of cities are being described as “obesogenic” (causing obesity) environments. To me, the present mega-city status of Lagos appears to be a “chieftaincy title”, and the economic potentials are yet to be tapped into. Being a formal capital of the nation, it is one of the few megacities that possess a tiny geography for a large demography of over 17 million people. Thus, it has a high population density that may struggle to be packed in Lagos. These births an opportunity for a lateral horizontal urban development with a sustainable livelihood into surrounding states and a transportation scheme, for example, train that has more predictable travelling time. Development in states of a region should key into each other, thus culminating into a choreographed regional growth. Therefore, the light-rail project in Ogun State, though commendable, should have been, or I hope it is in sync with the housing surge from the stemming Lagos population. Thus, sparking regional development. This principle has to be considered for other regions in Nigeria because there are other fast growing cities approaching the mega-city status.
More so, it should be noted that the federation does have the responsibility to guide the tone of development, which the states can key into, and Nigeria should be reminded even though we might disagree on the ways in which we desire progress of our Nation, we must never conflict progressing the Nation and drawing it backward. Thus, all levels of the government must co-operate to effect change because collaboration brings about development. Rather than pacify the immense faithfulness of Nigerians in our leaders, which might appear to touch on gullibility, by being populist in political approach with our debt definition at a whopping $60 billion or N4.1 trillion needed to pay salaries (we know the country is in a bad shape and those figures are depressing), we need inspiration. In the same way, energy is exerted to cost our debt; more energy should be used to effect change. The government should excite our sensibilities, which is beyond a generic 9-5 can-do-attitude, by creating an economic atmosphere for jobs. Refine and give a Nigerian youth an opportunity and you’ll be surprised by the immense potential that lies in us.
Am not hoping for statistical development, or massaging the countries figures in order to meet up with ratings of the world, whilst millions are still in dire poverty. There are countries that are not in the league of Nigeria that concentrate on tangible development more than ratings. While the international relationship is important, it is pertinent we should be weary of gulags of debt dressed as investment fund either from the Chinese dragons or the West. We are looking in the wrong direction, our true development is neither westward nor eastward it lies inward, it is amongst us. Nigeria is not an eleemosynary (dependent on charity) of the world financial freebies. It is a sovereign independent nation with civilizations over 2000 years folded within its perimeter. There is a Nigerian (African) knowledge economy that should be tapped into, to effect the desired change yearned by the people.
The people expect “magic”, and of course magic can happen. There were countries in worse situations than where we are now, which experienced magic. Singapore magic happened when Lee Kuan Yew rejected populist views, induced the country with inspiration and pursued social-economic reforms. China magic happened when they went further than agricultural economy and Deng Xiaoping turned China’s regions into powerful economic provinces. Britain’s magic also happened after the World War II with a background of the country smoking in half bombed Cathedrals, Winston Churchill reminded the country that they are the mother of the modern civilization, they are the Great Britain. All we need to do is look inward. The magic is within us.