Why Sylva and APC Hold the Aces in Bayelsa Election
In the next few weeks, precisely on December 5, Bayelsans will go to the polls to elect a new governor. It promises to be an interesting contest between the current governor, Seriake Dickson of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the immediate past governor, Timipre Sylva of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Both are contesting for a second term as governor.
In Nigerian politics the incumbency factor is seen as crucial. Dickson is the incumbent and is of the party of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who is also a Bayelsan and mentor to the governor. Jonathan, using his position as president and state institutions, had personally imposed Dickson as PDP candidate in 2012, in a series of political missteps that cost him his presidency in March this year. He lost the last presidential poll to President Muhammadu Buhari of the new APC. Jonathan’s inability to hold on to his seat is indicative of how tenuous Dickson’s position is and why he is unsure of his fate. The only mitigating factor is what has been dubbed the sympathy votes the PDP may get from Bayelsans to ensure that their son, Jonathan, does not lose his political base. But the events of the last several months have proved that even that is not guaranteed.
High profile politicians and serving political office holders have abandoned the PDP and Jonathan in droves since the party lost the poll at the centre. Many have pointed to the lacklustre performance of Jonathan and the PDP, which failed to develop Bayelsa State and the larger Niger Delta region, despite producing a president for five years. It is on record that the only visible project, the East-West Road, which cuts through Bayelsa State, was not completed. Even more deplorable is the fact that the Bayelsa portion of that road is the one that is most neglected, compared to the Delta and Rivers states portions. Perhaps, aware of how badly he had performed, at a reception for him upon leaving office, Jonathan had said that he expected his kinsmen to stone him rather than welcome him. Since then that public show of affection has worn out. On the streets of the capital, Yenagoa, and in the various communities, there is anger at the wasted years, a situation that prompted the mass realignment of political forces in the state to the APC.
As a result of the failure of the PDP federal government even the Dickson administration is careful to not associate with the programmes of the previous government at the centre. It has been trying, albeit unsuccessfully, to position itself as an independent administration, conscious of the liability the Jonathans have become.
But here Dickson is on quicksand. The governor has not lived up to his promises to the state and large swathes of the state have not been touched by government programmes; several projects started by the founding fathers of the state, including the Sylva administration, are either abandoned or poorly managed. Aside the absence of governance in the state, the PDP is a shadow of itself. Many of the party’s stalwarts have defected to the APC and others complain of abandonment by the Dickson administration. Not too long ago, even the former First Lady Patience Jonathan threatened to withdraw support for Dickson. Dickson has become a victim of the many IOUs he collected on the way to becoming governor in 2012 and has become entangled in meeting the selfish demands of these godfathers and godmothers.
Still, Dickson’s major problem is the profile of his opponent. Sylva is considered one of the most potent political forces in Bayelsa State today, especially on account of his role in singlehandedly building the APC in the state at its foundation. Despite being in opposition, Sylva proved that he was no political minion in the way and manner he mobilised Bayelsans to key into the APC vision of change. It is a measure of his following that rallies called by the APC are packed to the rafters, with enthusiastic supporters and followers. For a man who was vilified by the PDP regime and hounded, he has proved his mettle and is regarded as one of the closest politicians to President Buhari. Some political watchers believe that the risk he took in breaking away from the PDP after the imposition of Dickson and teaming up with others to found the APC has paid off for Bayelsans by guaranteeing the state a place in the new regime.
Yet another problem is the new moral rectitude of change that the APC has brought to government at the centre. With this, the era of rigging that facilitated the massive victories of the PDP in recent times will not be permitted. The party will have to show that it is, indeed, popular and loved by the people. If the feelers from the streets and communities of Bayelsa are anything to go by, Dickson’s and, by extension, PDP’s days are numbered in Bayelsa State.
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