OBASANJO, IBB LETTERS AND HIDDEN MESSAGES
The letters are urging all stakeholders to ensure President Buhari does not serve a second term, reckons Sebastian Ikyegh Agbinda
Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida’s open market treatise to President Muhammadu Buhari breached traditional protocols for discourse amongst gerontocrats. Elders don’t go out to the public first before attempting to discuss matters of gravity. The common thread that weaves through their open warnings to Buhari is well known – stay away from a second term. Let new, digital, leadership emerge from the entrails of your calamity. This could be either in a new vehicle (Obasanjo or in the context of debris from Option A4 – a two party structure (IBB). The outstanding congruence is this: that both leaders never told us they had attempted – and failed – to dissuade Buhari, in some nocturnal meeting which justified the open market option as top choice.
Two reasons could be adduced from their breach of elders’ protocol. First, the gravity and severity of their assessment of the challenges Buhari had thrown up, that is to say, using an earlier quote from Murtala Muhammad to Yakubu Gowon – “he was too far gone”. The second reason would be Buhari’s unbending character. It wouldn’t matter if you tried to see him for an early “sabre – rattling” mid-night session. One and two could have converged in the minds of the strategic generals to conclude that Buhari had not only lost his mind, he had lost his grip on the nation due to prolonged illness which, not going away soon, and bearing the prospect of multiplier complexities from the burden of impending campaigns, he would not even understand how much damage he was bringing to himself, the nation, the reputation of the military, its presidential retiree peers, and not least, the doctrine of Fulani exceptionalism. By going public early, first and fast, they both hoped Buhari and the small clan running his presidency would understand, sympathise with them and forestall an inevitability.
To show that he was not being personal, only professional and patriotic, Obasanjo would pursue an opening at the African Union meeting with a knowing Abubakar Abdulsalami, another member of the patriotic conspirators, in the background, to exercise pleasantries with Buhari, what he failed to do in the first place when he went public! As for Abubakar’s foreknowledge, what is it IBB knows that he doesn’t? Including of course the plot in 1998, as head of state, to spring Obasanjo from prison and wrestle the 1999 transition, going inexorably to the South-West (zoning and rotation restructuring) from the AD and enthrone Obasanjo as head of state. Given this mutually ambassadorial role IBB and Abubakar play out to each other, you can assume that three former military heads of state are conspiratorially part of the OBJ – IBB public outpouring.
Two distinct messages emerge from the above picture. In the same way that IBB – OBJ would conscript generals, on the eve of 2015 elections, to mobilise support for Buhari, they are, quite potently equally mobilising them against Buhari’s second attempt. Second, given Buhari’s cross–regional failure and the recent bloody output from the Middle Belt minorities– Taraba 63 and Benue 73, you are left to conjecture why T.Y. Danjuma and several other generals would be out of this circle of retired generals consulted in drafting the anti-Buhari second term letter.
The messages in the letters are several – for the unemployed, private sector, institutions and organs of government. There is a message for the military. Some for the political class – from national congressmen to the ordinary Nigerian voter. There is a message too for journalists, analysts and few would fail to understand the tenor based on the constituency they come from.
For the military, OBJ – IBB must be hoping they have read through the lines of the message. Perhaps, they are equally saying that this is a democracy. However, even as their letters may not be coup–baying or coup–baiting, the military should know better. They are being called upon to be vigilant and listen to their patriotic conscience, not to Buhari’s military top–brass who are products of an evolving Fulani supremacist agenda and clannishness - not military meritocracy. Need we say any more than this – be careful as you follow your leaders from Buhari’s clannishness; listen to your patriotic retired generals who call on you from retirement as former heads of state – and military leaders.
Just so we don’t over interpret the message and put too much pressure on its authors, with all their “democratic” credentials we move next to understand the message of the letter to our national legislators. OBJ – IBB and others may be saying, if Buhari heeds our advice, let sleeping dogs lie! However, if he proceeds, like his body language is announcing, you will have to embark on a coup-like impeachment exercise. Given the open invitational tone of the letter, the generals could be saying: if you initiate an impeachment process, you will receive our support. Given Buhari’s all- out cross-country and cross-sectoral failure, it should be possible to cobble some grave constitutional infractions not least involving the quality of his health, historically and futuristically.
And just in case Buhari is able to wriggle past all these herculean obstacles, OBJ – IBB, et al, are encouraging the Nigerian electorate to brace up for an anti-Buhari vote in 2019. Readily and generally, you can see some of these 2019 sketch designs: example the amendment to the electoral act whose import and message is that Mr. President is irredeemably leprose, position the presidential election last, so he doesn’t foul up our prospects – quite the opposite of 2015 when it was quite profitable to order Buhari, a winning brand then, ahead of the other elections in the hope of harvesting band-wagon effects.
Doctors won’t be served humble pie by the ordering of the essay. They are that critical. The condition of Buhari’s health historically, the reference to clannishness, and the burden of not just the impending elections but the rough and tear of office, all point to the prospect of inviting medical personnel, by a letter from the generals – all signing together for increased tightening measure – requesting Buhari to avail himself, Trump-style, for medical doctors’ examinations. A simple issue as stake is how a former military officer of Buhari’s calibre can engage in the brazen clannishness in today’s military or security top-brass without some form of mental illness. It is possible that given the generals global reach, they would (by now) have laid their hands on Buhari’s medical report, and surreptitiously opened it to the public? A president’s health report, after all, ought to be open page – to a congress and public baying for blood. Therein lies the larger responsibility for not doctors, congressmen, media practitioners and the nervous public at large.
The message for the opposition and media is there too. It is acknowledged that in the absence of the APC-type opposition leading up to 2015, a model in Nigeria, and due to endless squabbles in the PDP, and their inability to learn from the APC, the opposition to Buhari has been left to Senators Shehu Sani, Wole Soyinka, Itse Sagay (far left remnants of the APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu (bring down our interest rates), principally the media, in all its ramifications – and, of course, latter day entrants OBJ – IBB and their military ex – this, ex - thats. OBJ – IBB invites them not to relent.
The ultimate challenge is how a convergence of all these forces join with new parties; young men, new movements to fuel anti-second term – Buharism. It looks strange indeed that the earliest stone against Buhari was thrown by Ghali Na-Abba, former Speaker, former PRP, two days before Obasanjo’s. Given their heady relationship in years past, it will be interesting to see how they work and walk common ground in the anti-Buhari journey.
OBJ – IBB’s final message is for those die hard Buharists, those who see him in their individual prospect – El-Rufai, - those who see him as a political – commercial commodity, to the herdsmen who are going for broke in Buhari’s final day; the small crowd of Fulani supremacists, et al., OBJ – IBB are saying : your days are numbered.