2019 and the Ibadan Conversation
At the invitation of Dr Tunji Olaopa, I was at the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP) last Thursday for what turned out a most interesting conversation on elections in Nigeria as critical stakeholders interrogate my book, ‘Against The Run of Play: How an incumbent president was defeated in Nigeria’. The ISGPP’s monthly book reading series to which I was invited is an innovative platform for community engagement on issues of governance, democracy and development and draws participants from the huge population of intellectuals within and around the city of Ibadan.
It is indeed a testimony to the reach of Olaopa, a retired federal permanent secretary, that the participants for my session were drawn from the academia, private sector and the civil society with respected Professors from the University of Ibadan, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-ife, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-iwoye and University of Lagos in attendance. Some of the accomplished people who stayed throughout the session that lasted almost five hours included Professors Akin Mabogunje, Bolanle Awe, Femi Osofisan, Adigun Agbaje, Olabode Lucas, Olabisi Ugbebor, Lai Olurode, Abiola Odejide, Ayo Olukotun and A.O. Popoola. There were also Dr B. A. Olarewaju, Dr Ademola Oyeleye, Dr Ashindorbe Kelvin, Dr Kayode Salman, Dr Irene Pogoson, Dr Wumi Akin-Onigbinde, Dr Festus Adedayo, Mrs Yemi Alabi and several others whose invaluable contributions made the event very enlightening. Ms Chienye Ogwo, the CEO of African Initiative for Governance (AIG) also came from Lagos.
In his opening remark, Olaopa commended many of the attendees whose passion and commitment have given the ‘ISGPP Book Readers Club’ its uniqueness, and whose regular participation at their events “have continued to buoy the drive for a continuous treatment of high-quality works that have direct implications for governance and public policy in Nigeria.” This, according to Olaopa, can only help in creating public awareness on the contemporary challenges of development while exploring ways in which they can be tackled.
As one would expect in a gathering of such intellectual heavyweights, the interactions were very engaging and one thing that came out clearly from the session is the fact that defeating an incumbent president is not an easy task anywhere in the world. I particularly made that point very clear by referencing Hal Furman’s paper titled ‘Why Incumbents Rarely Lose’ published in the nevadajournal.com, where he stated that “Incumbents have a much easier time getting re-elected than challengers have at even coming close to beating them”, and he gave reasons that validate my long-held position as I explained at the session before reading a section of the book.
I made the same point in the interview I granted reporters after the session which some people have misinterpreted to mean I was dismissive of the presidential aspirants who are currently challenging the incumbent. Nothing can be farther from the truth. I was asked about whether the massive campaign for Nigerians to get their PVC can help the opposition in the election and I responded in the affirmative but with a caveat. The challenge for the opposition, as I explained, “is that they have to get their acts together. I keep saying that by the end of 2012 for instance, we already knew who was going to challenge Jonathan in 2015. You can’t say the same thing today. And you need a cohesive opposition to defeat an incumbent.”
There is nothing new in what I said. I was not in the country during the 16th April 2011 presidential election won by the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. However, having completed my research paper on such elections at the Harvard Weatherhead Centre for International Affairs, I shared my perspective on why the outcome of the Nigerian election of that year could not have been different. After editing the paper to make it readable as a journalism text aside putting it within the then prevailing Nigerian context, I published it on 22nd May, 2011, exactly a week before Jonathan was sworn in.
Titled, ‘Divided They Run, United They Lose’, it is noteworthy that some supporters of the defeated Major General Muhammadu Buhari, quite naturally, did not take kindly to the piece because they were still laying claim to being ‘rigged out’ at the time. My position was that Jonathan defeated Buhari and that it would be more productive for the opposition to accept the result and begin preparation for the future. That was not a popular opinion at the time given the postelection violence that claimed the lives of many people in the north.
In the paper, I wrote: “The lesson is that the fixation of the Nigerian opposition with voters’ turn out in the South-east and South-south may not carry much weight. In any case, no presidential election result has ever been upturned by court anywhere in the world. While not advocating against the legal option already taken by a section of the Nigerian opposition, my contention is that it is more productive for them to begin to plan and organize for future elections. The perennial narrative that they are rigged out by the ruling party is becoming hollow. In a milieu where political parties are not only weak but lack financial wherewithal while there is no ideology binding members together, forging an alliance only weeks to the election is no more than an open invitation to a sure defeat.”
Less than a year after the election, common sense eventually prevailed. Buhari--whose support base in three presidential elections that ended in defeat had been restricted to only two of the three geo-political zones in the north without any appreciable showing in the entire south--got together with the former Lagos State Governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and others, to begin the process of building a serious opposition coalition against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The rest, as they say, is now history.
Last Thursday, following the reviews of the book by five eminent scholars, including Olurode, a former Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Commissioner as well as Prof Olukotun, Dr Festus Adedayo, Dr Pogson, Mrs Alabi and Prof Olabisi Ugbebor, who posed a question about why our politicians are not really concerned about strategies to make Nigeria work, certain conclusions were drawn. But not before Ugbebor likened the politics being played in Nigeria to a game of Ludo with practitioners to whom crosscarpeting has become a way of getting off the hook for crimes committed.
At the end, some of the conclusions were: One, the core values that should support our system are almost irreversibly totally eroded with impunity fast becoming a way of life in Nigeria today. Two, we would be playing the ostrich if we fail to understand that the involvement in our politics by the United States, United Kingdom etc. and the choices they make during our elections are primarily to protect and perpetuate their interests and influences. Three, the autonomy of INEC must be vigorously defended and upheld because the gains derived from the 2015 election cannot be divorced from the very strong electoral bureaucracy. Four, several hurdles are still placed against the participation of our women in politics. Five, it is important to take another look at the political structure of our country in a bid to make it accountable and deliver on public good. Six, President Goodluck Jonathan deserves accolades for accepting defeat notwithstanding the reservations about some people within his party on the conduct of the election, especially in some northern states.
While I thank Dr Olaopa and the distinguished personalities who graced the book reading in Ibadan, the take-away for me is that there is an urgent need for us to be more serious about the leadership recruitment process at all levels of government in Nigeria. It is sad that a nation so blessed with an abundance of highly educated (in all fields of human endeavor) and very competent men and women is almost always saddled with leaders who are ill-prepared for governance. Yet, for as long as our leaders continue to emerge based on the wild cards of chance and luck without preparation while relying on ‘body language’ to muddle through, good governance will also continue to elude us as a nation.