The Choice Before Nigeria…1
Despite dozens of presidential candidates on the ballot, next Saturday’s election is essentially between the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Sadly, the expectation that the campaign would be issue-based has turned out to be a mirage. With just nine days to the poll, the choice between the two, especially for nonpartisans, has been reduced to the candidate they distrust (or dislike) less rather than the one who inspires them more.
I find it difficult to believe that federal universities in our country have been closed for more than three months as a result of the strike by the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). Neither of the two candidates is offering ideas on how to resolve this nagging problem or any of the other contradictions that define our nation today. Aside the tantrums, abuses and disinformation being exchanged in the social media by supporters of these two leading candidates, one cannot ascertain where they stand on critical national issues that my colleague, Kayode Komolafe, highlighted in the last few weeks. For Buhari and Atiku, the campaign is about who can pull the larger crowd.
Because a choice must be made, we are now in the season of endorsements and predictions. Fishermen, bus conductors, witches and wizards, retired and expired generals as well as renowned entrepreneurs of social-cultural groups are telling us which way to cast our ballots. On Tuesday, the National Association of Nigerian Prostitutes took their ‘bed-to-wealth’ policy to another level by endorsing Atiku. Four years ago their endorsement went to Buhari. Regrettably, at a time you expect my friend, Dr Reuben Abati, to dissect the ‘bedmatic’ implications of this development on how Nigerians will exercise their franchise next Saturday, he is busy canvassing for votes that will enable him to become the next deputy governor of Ogun State.
The idea of predicting who will win the presidential election on the basis of unscientific assumptions is even more ludicrous. From the Brexit vote in the U.K. to the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., we have seen how unreliable opinion polls can be. Most often, they are a reflection of the bias of whoever is doing the sampling or making the prediction. So, the only poll that matters in Nigeria will come next Saturday and it is imperative that the electorate walk away with confidence that their ballots will be counted and will count.
While this election is not being fought along traditional fault-lines, and will not be lost or won on that basis, we are nonetheless still a fragile country. That explains why even when there may be little to cheer about the election, there is indeed a lot to fear in the aftermath. In a milieu where going to government appears to be the only rewarding enterprise for many people and seeking elective offices a financial investment with attractive returns, it would not take much to push the country down the road to Venezuela. We don’t need another political crisis that could add to the growing population of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) and create further problems for the most vulnerable of our society.
It is comforting that the two leading presidential candidates have so many things in common, although their worldviews are markedly different. Both are in their seventies and have had opportunities to serve this country at the highest level of government. Both are northern Muslims and Fulani. But while those considerations should ordinarily matter, their supporters are already weaving all manner of conspiracy theories so there is no guarantee for peace if the outcome does not conform to expectations on either side. That is the challenge of the moment.
For years, commentators have harped on a United States “prediction about the collapse of Nigeria”, although the oft-quoted 2005 report on sub-Saharan Africa by the American National Intelligence Council on “likely trends in the region over the next 15 years” merely built hypothetical scenarios. It is, however, noteworthy that the report also stated that “while currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja”. One such possibility, as we have seen from examples of other countries on the continent, is that crisis could result from a disputed election. We must do everything to avert this happening in Nigeria.
The last word is for the supporters of the two leading candidates who must have seen how the children of our prominent politicians are always marrying across ethnic, political and religious lines. These children of privilege, like other members of their families, study abroad, go to hospitals abroad, give birth abroad, shop abroad, go for vacation abroad and enjoy all the trappings of power. Yet, our politicians arm their young supporters with dangerous weapons and a few thousand naira to kill and maim; or provide laptops, handsets and stipends for them to spread stories to damage the reputation of their opponents.
Now take this: If your only value is as a ballot box snatcher or internet destroyer but not good enough to be a son or daughter-inlaw who could be empowered economically and politically in the spirit of ‘Iberiberism’ chapter 20, verse 19, then your foolishness is beyond human remedy. In that case, open your mouth and repeat this prayer from Saint WhatsApp after me: ‘Father, let sense fall on me today’!
Now, pray…