ONE BLOW SEVEN DIE
added the scarecrow scenario that unless petrol subsidy ends soon, most state governments will be unable to pay their workers’ salaries. They raised hope that a deregulated fuel market will bring in new investment in refineries which will ultimately moderate petrol prices. They sweetened the deal with a pledge to pay N5,000 a month each directly to the poorest Nigerians to cushion the effects. I can imagine our judge nodding his head and saying to this submission, “You are telling the truth.”
The respondents, a disparate collection of labour, student leaders, civil society activists, ordinary Nigerians and not a few anarchists are just as eloquent. They argue that Nigeria is an oil producing country so fuel price should be low here. It is government’s fault, they say, that it allowed all its four refineries to collapse and was unable to build new ones since the 1970s. If petrol is smuggled across the borders, they say, it is government’s fault because it has a Customs Service and numerous other security agencies. Besides, and this is the clincher, a hike in petrol prices of the magnitude being mentioned will precipitate across the board inflation in transport fares and the cost of all goods and services, as happened in the past.
Before the judge could comment, the respondents add that timing of this deregulation could not be more inauspicious than this period of barely noticeable economic recovery, with COVID still wreaking havoc, with high unemployment, high inflation, with bandits running riot, with Boko Haram and ISWAP still terrorising the North Eastand with election year looming. It is a case of the old Hungarian tale of one blow seven die, they will say.
In any case, they say, deregulation was jointly prompted by World Bank and IMF, the latter being the most reviled name in Nigeria since the SAP era. IMF recently said, very unhelpfully, thatour government should end fuel and electricity subsidies by next year. Our confused judge will sigh and say to this submission, “You are also telling the truth.”
Now it is the turn of the spectator to jump into the fray. He will say, “Judge, you said government is telling the truth when it said spending N1.8 trillion to subsidise petrol is national profligacy on a criminal scale, which will soon bankrupt the country and that it is illegal under the Petroleum Industry Act. You said these labour leaders are also telling the truth when they said even if subsidy ends and the money is channeled into the Federation Account, it will seep into the pockets of senior officials and contractors to finance medical tourism, elite children’s schooling abroad, their wives’ shopping trips to Europe and Dubai, luxury vehicles and posh mansions at Maitama, Asokoro and Banana Island.Surely, both of them cannot be telling the truth.”
This Nigerian judge is a wise man. He will frown, fidget, sigh and say, “Spectator, you are also telling the truth. All three of you are not telling lies. I hereby restrain IMF from commenting on this issue. Labour and youths, if you do a #RestoreSubsidy protest and occupy Lekki Toll Gate, you will get another Commission of Inquiry whose findings will be disputed. I reserve judgment till a later date.”