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THE CAT-AND-MOUSE GAME OVER ZONING

causing too much distraction from the real goal of national development. We keep playing identity politics. The interests of the political elite are best served through the perennial emphasis on ethnic, religious and regional identities. Whereas the ordinary Nigerian is troubled about access to safe water, decent housing, food, healthcare, education and security, they do not set the agenda for electioneering. Instead, they are unwittingly co-opted into discussing the sentiments of the political elite who are more interested in the politics of sharing the “national cake” in form of appointments and contracts.

As a result of the sheer power of the political elite to impose their agenda above that of the ordinary Nigerians, we will always place identity politics above development politics. Come and see ordinary people at newspaper stands in Abeokuta, Abakaliki and Abaji arguing over north and south and Christian and Muslim when they do not know where their next meal will come from or if they will not be kidnapped or killed on their way home. My thinking, therefore, is that until we appease the political elite by settling the issue of predictability of where power will go at election times, they will not allow us to table a development agenda, which is what really matters to 200 million Nigerians.

While I support “power shift” to the south in 2023, I also want to quickly raise two issues. One, where there is no law, there is no offence. The parties are free to take their tickets anywhere. If both APC and PDP pick northern candidates, no court of law can annul it. Power rotation is not a legal matter — it is a political understanding. Two, since this is an understanding, we should always leave a room for good politics in making it work.

Blackmail and intimidation would be counterproductive. Playing good politics means forging the right alliances and striking the right chord, not threatening other regions and ethnic groups with war. That would only amount to work avoidance in my view.

The notion that the south-west got presidency in 1999 because of the violence unleashed by the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) cannot be true. Bashorun MKO Abiola won the June 12 election in 1993 and it was annulled. This plunged the nation into a prolonged political crisis. When Abiola died in detention in 1998, the political class came together and agreed to compensate the south-west over the annulment as well as his death. Even at that, Dr Alex Ekwueme, from the southeast, contested against Obasanjo at the PDP primary and lost by a wide margin. OPC did not stop its violent campaign for “Oduduwa Republic” after Obasanjo became president but he contained them.

Neither did Jonathan become president in 2011 because of Niger Delta militancy. The militants were not asking for presidency. They wanted 100 percent control of the oil and gas resources in their region and started a bombing campaign in 2005. At no time did they demand that the president after Obasanjo should come from the Niger Delta, except I missed it. In any case, Jonathan was not going to be running mate to Yar’Adua until some last-minute abracadabra at the PDP presidential convention ground in Abuja. Jonathan became president not because of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) but because Yar’Adua died unexpectedly in 2010.

I heard people argue when Jonathan was in power that the north propped up

Boko Haram after Buhari lost to him in 2011 in order to push for power to return to the region in 2015. This conspiracy theory stands on nothing. Buhari has now been in office for nearly seven years and Boko Haram has continued to wreak havoc on the north. This is to say nothing about the attempt on Buhari’s life in Kaduna in 2014 by suspected Boko Haram members or the various attacks on mosques in Borno and Kano states by the terrorist group. How it could ever be interpreted that the Boko Haram militancy was designed to take power back to the north beats the imagination. The facts do not support this.

If power would come to the south in 2023, in my view, it would be most useful to put blackmail aside and focus on playing good politics. I support zoning but I also know that even without zoning, power can still shift to the south. Abiola did not win June 12 election by blackmailing anybody. He forged the right alliances nationwide over a long period of time. Abiola, from Ogun state, south-west Nigeria, defeated Alhaji Bashir Tofa in Kano state, north-west. Was it Yoruba voters or southerners that gave him victory in Kano state? The answer is obvious. Abiola aligned with the right power blocs. Also, Obasanjo did not win in the south-west in 1999 yet became president. Let’s be guided.

Finally, zoning to the south is one thing, micro-zoning within the region is another. Based on the “tripod theory” — the pre-Independence political structuring of Nigeria along Hausa/Fulani, Igbo and Yoruba ethnic classification — only the Igbo are yet to produce an elected president. A strong case has been built that on the basis of equity, the two biggest parties should concede their tickets to the Igbo. I do not have any problems with that. In fact, it would help actualise the Nigeria of my dream where no part will feel left behind because of any disadvantages — be they educational, historical, social, political or numerical. A president of Igbo origin would gladden my heart.

Some issues will still crop up nonetheless. For one, the APC — the biggest party in Nigeria today — is very weak in the south-east. A counterargument would be that PDP was also weak in the south-west in 1999 and Obasanjo was still elected president. I doubt if the circumstances and dynamics of 1999 are similar to what we have today and I don’t know if APC would want to take that risk. Also, if an Igbo from the south-south becomes presidential candidate of either APC or PDP or both, will the Igbo of the south-east finally feel accommodated? Meanwhile, APC presidential hopefuls from the south-west are not showing any signs of considering conceding to the south-south or south-east.

I will now round up. The underlying factor behind the cat-and-mouse game between APC and PDP over zoning is cold political calculation. Both parties are strategising on how to get the largest share of the votes in the presidential election. But there is a bigger picture they must keep in focus. The basic point I would make here is that personal interests should not trump the cause of political stability. Zoning is in our DNA. We have made some progress in national integration through the application of federal character in sharing revenue, appointments, projects and what not, and I believe that power rotation can further help unify our troubled country. We are a work in progress.