Ogundiwin: Oyo in State of Political Despondency Before Makinde
Associate Professor of Political Science at Babcock University, Ilisan-Remo, Ogun State and Oyo State Coordinator of Omituntun Initiative in the Diaspora (OID), Dr Aaron Ola Ogundiwin, speaks with Kemi Olaitan, on the political situation and chances of Governor Seyi Makinde in the forthcoming 2023 election.
As a non-partisan political scientist, why do you seem to concentrate on the administration of Seyi Makinde ? In actual fact, the global system is a laboratory for political scientists but that does not exclude domestic or, if you like, national, local political goings-on. The local physical or social setting in which something occurs or develops goes a long way to inform hypotheses formation for political scientists. In this case, I am saying that Oyo State is closer to me than Nigeria as much as Nigeria is closer to me than the international political directorate. I must engage my state ruling class first and all other things may be added unto it.
So, one can say you are interested in power ascendancy of the political elites?
You just strike the point like a prophet! Power ascendancy of political class is of keen interest to me because it goes a long way in predicting what the performance of a leader would be. Just take note of this and pay religious attention to how a leader ascends to power and you would not be disappointed about the performance of such a leader, anywhere and in any setting.
What was your assessment of the political space in Oyo State before the 2019 gubernatorial election?
Before and during the period you mentioned, the level of political despondency had reached its crescendo. The despondency reached such an intra and inter-party boiling point, that without casting aspersions on the leaders of the then various political groups, different political mantras which did not take into consideration the reality of that time started to rent the air in addition to different choices of candidates within one political party and Lagos-Abuja pressures on the state.
It is not only that these mantras from the then ruling party detached from reality, they were not philosophical. They were politically arrogant and dressed in the toga of the then incumbent precariousness. In all of this, the poor masses were not in the equation. They forgot that salaries of workers were owed for many months, pensions and gratuities were put on hold, economically viable projects were not awarded and where they were awarded the sum was spine-tingling. When God was ready to wipe the tears of the poor, the philosophical and reality-focused mantra (Omi Tuntun) rose and stood like the Cedar of Lebanon. The Lord remembered the constant love Seyi Makinde has for the poor and how keen he is to liberate them. His investments into making living worth the while for people were remembered. As it is recorded in the book of Acts 10:31, there came the good news: “Makinde, God has heard your prayer and remembered your gifts to the poor!” GSM’s emergence is an answer to the prayers of the people of Oyo State.
Given the rift among the ranks of the PDP at the national level what chance do you think that Governor Seyi Makinde has to be returned in 2023?
First of all, you have to understand that political party is different from the electorate. Political party has its functions which are markedly different from those of the electorate. Political parties contest for power to form and run government. So, in a polity of free, fair and credible elections, political party power-ascendancy depends exclusively on how it succeeds to woo (through its programmes, manifestoes and or legitimacy performance) the electorate to vote it to power. Whatever is going on with PDP at the national level does not and would not affect GSM’s chances of being returned for second term.
You seem so sure like a party man. Why?
You made me laugh. I am not a politician. Go and check the registers of political parties. I am from ward 3 in Egbeda local government area. I am a professional political scientist. So, check the fact and you will see that there is no need to make any allusion to the likelihood of my being a party man. And if you ask for my opinion as to why I am sure GSM will return to office in 2023, God granting us life, the reason is that while his co-contenders are busy thinking about what their programmes and manifestoes would be (a herculean task for them) GSM has tested and trusted programmes and manifestoes; what I refer to here as legitimacy performance. Ask me, what are the electorate (educated and uneducated) looking for? What is the language they all understand? It is legitimacy performance.
What implications does having the presidential election before the gubernatorial election have on GSM’s second term bid?
Let us leave these political parties alone. In fact, I don’t want to talk about them. If you like produce another Adolf Hitler as the next president unless INEC reneges on its promises to the electorate, no implications – negative or positive – on GSM’s second term.
Remember that, specifically, we are talking about Oyo State of today and not of yesteryears. Oyo State electorate are looking at the candidates and they know the promise keeper. They can see what he is doing with the mandate they gave him. So, the civil servants, the retirees, the primary and secondary schools’ teachers, the market women, the peasant farmers, the commercial, large-scale farmers, the micra drivers, the okada riders, the bus drivers, the tertiary institution students and their lecturers, the religious leaders, the traditional rulers and the dependants of these categories of the electorate who are of voting age, who voted GSM for the first term, are eagerly waiting to cast their votes for GSM. They are thoroughly persuaded that GSM will do more for them.
Are you saying political parties are not relevant as far as 2023 general elections are concerned?
Never! How can I say that? What I am saying is that political parties and the electorate have their functions and roles which are different and are indisputable. I am saying that political parties have performed one of their functions – fielding candidates for election – and another one they have to perform is to woo the electorate to vote them into power; that is what they are doing now. Having registered for election, collected their valid cards, the electorate will decide the candidates and political parties to govern in free, fair and credible elections. Period! As far as state elections are concerned, the first category of candidates and political parties to know they will win or lose the elections are those seeking the second term because their works (good or bad) are following them.
Have you not seen examples of politicians who got the second term and changed against the people who voted them?
I have seen. In fact, there are many examples. But what I have to say about that is that GSM is not that kind of politician. What would make him disappoint the masses? What is he looking for in life that God has not blessed him with in abundance? Politicians truly are pretty difficult to predict, but GSM is not one of those. God granting us life, you will see what I am taking about. I have said it before that GSM has a name to protect, a family to respect, a religion to honour. I said that he was a leader first before becoming a politician and, he is a man of verifiable sources of income. No reason for him to renege on his promises. If you have a contrary opinion, please let us know. By the grace of God and God alone, we will all be here to confirm what I am saying. Mind you, this is my state and I am a perceptive observer.