OPEC crude output falls before upcoming meeting

London, UK - OPEC’s crude production fell before ministers gather to discuss their strategy for next year, though more by accident than design.

Angola, which has been suffering a decline for the past four years, saw output slide to the lowest in more than a decade. Iran’s production, already squeezed to the lowest since the 1980s by US sanctions, dwindled even further.

Total output from OPEC consequently slipped by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 29.7mn a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, ship-tracking data and estimates from consultants.

The group and its allies, a 24nation alliance known as OPEC+, will meet in Vienna this week to consider output levels for the year ahead. Though the coalition - which pumps about half the world’s oil - cut supply by 1.2mn bpd this year, it’s forecasting a renewed surplus in early 2020.

Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban said on Sunday that OPEC+ could consider deepening the cutback by 400,000 bpd. However, his comments conflict with signals from the rest of the group, and data for November showed that Iraq had again failed to deliver any of the curbs it promised under the existing deal.

Saudi Arabia indicated last week that it’s tired of shouldering most of the burden of the curbs while others - such as Iraq, Nigeria and Russia - fail to live up to their promises. The kingdom kept production steady last month at 10.01mn bpd, the survey showed.

While it’s still cutting far more than obligated under the terms of the OPEC+ deal, output is up from the levels produced for most of this year.

The decline in the group’s overall volumes last month was instead the result of unintended disruptions, which have beset many OPEC members for several years.

While Angola started pumping from a new ultra-deep offshore project this summer - the Kaombo unit operated by Total SA - the West African nation has struggled to make up for years of under-investment at aging oil fields. Output fell last month by 60,000 bpd to 1.28mn a day. Iranian production fell by 40,000 bpd to 2.07mn.

Despite the losses, OPEC’s total output remains higher than the levels it expects will be needed in the first half of next year. If the group holds at 29.7mn bpd, the surplus would amount to about 650,000 bpd, potentially pushing prices lower and hurting members’ revenues.