Indonesia: Presidential election today
Latest polls from multiple agencies show that support for the Prabowo-gibran pair continues to rise
Jakarta, Indonesia - Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election will be held on Wednesday. The latest polls from multiple agencies showed that the support for the pair of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka continues to rise, exceeding 50 per cent, having a chance to win directly in the first round of voting.
However, the other two candidate combinations were still seeking support from voters before the election campaign ended on Saturday, hoping to drag the election into a run-off.
Prabowo-gibran pair
Indonesia holds a general election every five years to elect the president and vice president. Candidates for the posts run in pairs.
The three combinations running for the 2024 election are: Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and Mayor of Surakarta Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of incumbent Indonesian President Joko Widodo; former Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo and former Coordinating Minister of Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin, and former Governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan and Chairman of the National Awakening Party Muhaimin Iskandar.
Surveys from polling agencies showed that the support rate for Prabowo’s combination has exceeded 50 per cent. By combining the survey results, the British journal The Economist said that as of January 28, Prabowo and Gibran had an average support rate of 53 per cent, leading by a large margin, while that of the Anies’ and Ganjar’s combinations were respectively 20% and 19%.
According to the election rules, in order to be directly elected, the candidate combination must obtain more than half of the ballots in the first round of voting and secure more than 20 per cent of the votes in more than half of Indonesia’s provinces and regions. If no group meets the requirements, a second round of voting will be held between the two groups of candidates with the most votes.
Adjie Alfaraby, a senior researcher at the Indonesian Survey Institute, said that the support rate for Prabowo’s combination continues to rise. If this trend can be maintained, Prabowo will likely win directly in the first round.
‘Widodo’s successor’
Prabowo is an important member of the current President Widodo’s administration. He has positioned himself as the president’s successor and said that he will continue to promote Widodo’s policies, thus winning the recognition of many supporters of the current administration.
Meanwhile, Widodo and members of his administration were also helping Prabowo with his campaign, further increasing Prabowo’s support rate.
Five rounds of debates have been held ahead of the upcoming general election, with the presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the three pairs taking turns attending.
The final debate on February 4 focused on social welfare, human resources, health, education and other issues. Analysts believe that compared with the other two presidential candidates, Prabowo’s policy proposals are more concrete and practical, and have a certain appeal to voters.
At the final debate, many cabinet members of the current administration were present to show their support for Prabowo. Almost all leaders from the nine parties of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition led by Prabowo were also present.
Recently, the Widodo administration has been providing support to Prabowo’s campaign. Since taking office as president in 2014, Widodo has led Indonesia to a path of steady development. Polls show that about 75 per cent of Indonesian people are satisfied with his governance. During his working visit to Central Java a few days ago, the president dined with Prabowo at a well-known restaurant as a gesture to help Prabowo increase his exposure.
Suspense still lingers
Although polls show that Prabowo’s combination has a big lead in support rate, the first round of voting is not without any suspense.
Lagging behind in the polls, Anies and Ganjar are still highspirited. Before the campaign ended, they were conducting intensive activities across the country for the final sprint. Some well-known figures in Indonesian politics have recently come forward to express their support for the two groups. Former Trade Minister Thomas Lembong joined Anies’ campaign team while the eldest son of Indonesia’s founding President Sukarno stood for Ganjar.
Analysts pointed out that with Prabowo currently leading the polls, Ganjar and Anies’ strategy is to seek a run-off. Buhanuddin Muhtadi, executive director of the polling agency Indonesian Political Indicators, recently said that if Anies and Ganjar successfully form an alliance and integrate their supporters, Prabowo will face some new challenges.
By combining the survey results, the British journal The Economist said that as of January 28, Prabowo and Gibran had an average support rate of 53%, leading by a large margin