A surprise for all in North Macedonia

Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina - North Macedonia’s first round of presidential polls on Wednesday ended with no candidate getting enough votes for an outright win.

That outcome was widely expected and everyone was already talking about a runoff, which will now be held on May 8, along with general elections in the country.

But in other ways, the result was not one many saw coming.

Main opposition candidate Gordana Siljanovska Davkova finished with around 40 per cent, double the tally of incumbent President Stevo Pendarovski, who was just shy of 20 per cent.

That marked a significant shift in support for Siljanovska Davkova, who is backed by the opposition conservative VMRODPMNE coalition and will become the country’s first female president if she prevails in the second round.

For Pendarovski and the ruling left-wing Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), analysts warn this could be a case of the writing being on the wall.

“I think everybody was surprised. Many surveys projected that Siljanovska Davkova will win the first round, but not with this high of a margin. This was a surprise for everybody, including the opposition,” Marko Trosanovski, a political consultant who heads the Institute for Democracy in Skopje, told Anadolu.

With some 1.8mn eligible voters in the country, turnout stood at just over 49 per cent, well above the first round of the 2019 presidential election.

Trosanovski emphasised that Siljanovska Davkova’s tally was almost double of her main rival Pendarovski, giving her a major edge for the runoff.

“This gives the opposition a very big advantage. It is mainly a psychological effect. The winner will get more votes because people are prone to vote for those that are more likely to be winners in the second round,” he said.

All eyes on path to EU

The hope in North Macedonia is whoever becomes president gets its long-anticipated entry into the European Union, pending for almost two decades.

Both main parties support the idea, but there are certain differences in their approach that could prove critical for the country’s European path. A major hurdle initially was a dispute with

Greece over the country’s name, which led to it officially being changed from Macedonia to North Macedonia in 2018.

That opened the way for North Macedonia to complete its membership to NATO in 2020.

The holdup to its EU membership now is from neighbouring Bulgaria, which has blocked its accession process for two years, pressing Skopje to give constitutional recognition to its Bulgarian minority. Pendarovski, Siljanovska Davkova and their parties are almost on the same page when it comes to North Macedonia joining the EU.

All of them are for the idea, but differ on the way forward.

“There is no dispute over EU membership as a strategic priority for the country, among any relevant political actor in the arena, aside for some marginal parties that are not important,’ Trosanovski said.