A brand-new chapter in Turkish-iraqi ties?
Istanbul, Turkey - On April 22, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a key visit to Iraq, a trip which constitutes a milestone in the development of cooperation between the two sides after a 12-year hiatus. The comprehensive discussions held in Baghdad and meetings in Erbil with Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) head Nechirvan Barzani represent significant steps in a brand-new chapter in bilateral relations, underscoring the diligent efforts of Turkish diplomacy.
With 26 different agreements signed in diverse areas such as security, trade, water, oil, education, agriculture, and finance, Ankara opened vital prospects for Iraq’s development, modernisation, and pan-regional economic integration. While the spirit of this cooperation is built on a win-win scenario, some opportunities and risks hold significant implications for both parties as well as for the region’s geopolitics. The background of this cooperation, particularly intensified by recent diplomatic engagements with Baghdad and Erbil, forms a crucial foundation. This visit formalised the mutual commitments underlying this long and comprehensive process.
With 26 different agreements signed in diverse areas, Ankara opened vital prospects for Iraq’s development, modernisation, and pan-regional economic integration
PKK a threat to both sides
In the domain of counterterrorism, this visit unfolded against the backdrop of Iraq designating the group PKK an outlawed organisation and the Turkish military announcing preparations for an
extensive operation in northern Iraq this summer. The establishment of a PKK foothold, along with affiliated groups, under the protection of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Sulaymaniyah within KRG territory, has been a grave concern for Ankara.
Despite repeated warnings, the Bafel Talabani-led PUK failed to heed these sensitivities, prompting Turkey to close its airspace last year, which underscores the gravity of the situation.
The present interactions have sent a new wind into bilateral relations, so Turkey anticipates significant steps from Baghdad on this matter. More so, since terrorism is not just a problem for Turkey, it is also a threat that disrupts the daily lives of Iraqis, endangers Iraqi border security, and jeopardises bilateral ties.
Development Road Project
On the Turkish-iraqi Development Road Project, the strides
taken not only position both countries as significant players in inter-regional connectivity but also offer Iraq the chance to diversify its heavily oil-dependent economy by attracting foreign investment and opening new areas of employment.
The escalating risk of regional conflicts, such as Israel’s Gaza conflict and threats from the Houthis in Yemen affecting maritime trade routes in the Red Sea, underscores the need for secure alternatives in trade and logistics
across the Middle East. While the India-middle East-europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project has remained largely on paper, constructing trade corridors and inviting regional participation within this cooperation framework reflects Turkey’s open and inclusive diplomatic approach. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar’s participation in the quadrilateral agreement signed during Erdogan’s visit underscores their interest in putting in place more alternatives that
boost the region’s inter-connectedness.
Where does Iran stand?
There is another side of the coin, and the collaborative spirit underpinning Turkish-iraqi relations could face some hurdles.
The group PKK, increasingly pressured by Turkey’s heightened military operations, could redirect its activities to new locations in the region. It could possibly relocate from the Iraqi side to the Iranian side of Mount Qandil. This option would require Ankara to open new dialogue tracks with Tehran on counterterrorism.
Equally pressing are the issues surrounding Iran, whose stance on terrorism and sceptical approach towards the Development Road demand close scrutiny. While the degree of Iranian influence on Iraqi domestic politics and its influence network of proxies across the Middle East is problematic, Turkey has to manoeuvre with these considerations in mind and keep its feet grounded, continuing to emphasise the long-term benefits to Iraq’s nation-building and development and underlining the strategic nature of this collaboration.
So far, Iran views the Development Road initiative with a lack of enthusiasm. Both sides need to underscore the economic benefits that Tehran would reap, as this project can be beneficial for all.