World economic growth in 2017 has been supported by strong momentum across all major economies and sectors and the healthy momentum is expected to continue in 2018, with growth forecast at 3.7%. Here are highlights from the world oil markets by OPEC
WORLD OIL DEMAND
World oil demand growth in 2017 remains unchanged from the previous MOMR at 1.53 mb/d. China is projected to lead oil demand growth in the nonOECD with 0.46 mb/d, followed by Other Asia, primarily India, with 0.28 mb/d and OECD Americas with 0.24 mb/d.
In 2018, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.51 mb/d. OECD will contribute positively to oil demand growth, adding some 0.28 mb/d, whereas the bulk of the growth will come from the non-OECD with 1.23 mb/d of potential growth.
WORLD OIL SUPPLY
World oil supply in November increased by 0.84 mb/d m-o-m from the previous MOMR to average 97.44 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.35 mb/d y-o-y. Preliminary non-OPEC oil supply, including OPEC NGLs, was up by 0.98 mb/d m-o-m in November to average 64.99 mb/d. For 2017, non-OPEC supply is estimated to grow by 0.81 mb/d y-o-y in 2017 to average 57.82 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.15 mb/d for growth from last month’s report. This upward revision was mainly due to an upward revision of Russia’s oil supply growth in 2017 by 0.09 mb/d, due to the latest updated production data. The non-OPEC supply forecast for next year’s growth was also revised up by 0.12 mb/d to 0.99 mb/d y-o-y, mainly owing to expected higher US oil supply growth, leading to an average of 58.81 mb/d for the year. The 2018 forecast for non-OPEC supply is associated with considerable uncertainties, particularly regarding US tight oil developments.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.17 mb/d y-o-y. In 2018, OPEC NGLs production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d. In November 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 133 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.45 mb/d.
BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2017
OPEC crude for 2017 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month to stand at 32.8 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.6 mb/d from 2016 level. Within the quarters, the first quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while the second and third quarters were revised down by 0.2 mb/d each and fourth quarter by 0.3 mb/d.
The first and the second quarter increased by 1.0 mb/d and 0.6 mb/d, respectively, while the third and fourth quarters are estimated to grow by 0.4 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively, when compared to the same quarter last year.
BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2018
OPEC crude for 2018 was also revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 33.2 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than 2017 level. Within the quarters, both the first and the fourth quarters were revised down by 0.2 mb/d, while the second and the third quarters were revised down by 0.3 mb/d each. The first and the second quarters are projected to increase by 0.4 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d versus the same quarter this year, while, the third and the fourth quarters are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d compared to the same quarter in 2017.
OUTLOOK FOR 2018
World economic growth in 2017 has been supported by strong momentum across all major economies and sectors. Growth now stands at 3.7%, up from an initial forecast of 3.2%. The healthy momentum is expected to continue in 2018, with growth forecast at 3.7%. The OECD, supported by the US and the Euro-zone and to some extent Japan, is considered a vital element of this
dynamic, with growth of 2.2% in 2018, only slightly below this year’s 2.3%. Moreover, upside from the envisaged tax-reform may lead to even higher growth in the US.
In the non-OECD, the growth momentum in China is forecast to slightly decelerate in 2018 to 6.5%, compared to 6.8% in 2017. India is likely to rebound from sluggish growth of 6.5% in 2017 to show growth of 7.4% in 2018. Brazil and Russia are forecast to continue their recovery at growth of 1.5% and 1.8% in 2018, after 2017 growth of 0.8% and 1.9%, respectively. As many economies now expand at or even above growth potential, the upside may be limited. Moreover, geopolitical developments and the pace of monetary policy normalisation will be aspects that will need close monitoring in 2018. Stability in the oil market also remains a key contributor for global economic growth.
World oil demand growth is estimated to have reached 1.53 mb/d in 2017, well above the initial forecast and maintaining the consistently healthy growth seen over the last three years. OECD Europe contributed most of the upward revisions, due to solid progress in the industrial sector in addition to strong transportation demand. In non-OECD, China oil demand growth has been robust in 2017 as the petrochemical and the transportation sectors continued to expand at a healthy pace and the overall economic activities improved from initial expectations.
For 2018, the main assumptions behind the forecast are firm economic growth, lending support to industrial and construction fuels in both OECD and non-OECD. Expansion in the transportation sector is expected to provide the bulk of oil demand growth. Growth in petrochemical demand is projected to be one of the fastest- growing contributors in US, China, South Korea and the Middle East. As such, world oil demand growth is estimated at 1.51 mb/d in 2018, compared to 1.26 mb/d in the initial forecast.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth 2017 performed well above initial market expectations to now stand at 0.81 mb/d. Higher-than-expected supply growth in the US, Canada and Kazakhstan have been the key contributors to the upward revisions, particularly US tight oil. As a result, US oil output is now expected to grow at 0.61 mb/d this year. The momentum seen this year is expected to continue in 2018 on the back of increased investment in US tight oil and improved well efficiency. Higher output from Canada, due to already sanctioned oil sands projects, will also contribute to next year’s growth. As a result, non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 0.99 mb/d in 2018. The forecast is associated with considerable uncertainties, particularly regarding US tight oil developments.
Based on the above forecasts, OPEC crude in 2018 is expected to stand at 33.2 mb/d, which is higher than the OPEC production levels seen this year. Combined with continued efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC to support oil market stability, this should lead to a further reduction in excess global inventories, arriving at a balanced market by late 2018.