Britain embarks on a long and tough journey
f it were possible to sum up the present state of the UK in one word, it would be ‘uncertainty’. That’s for certain. But the uncertainty isn’t solely centred around the Brexit deal that the government will negotiate. It’s more than that. There are concerns about job security, companies moving abroad, cutbacks as part of austerity measures, automation and endless other issues.
For many, the triggering of article 50 was the culmination of a long held dream that Britain would one day slip the surly bonds of the European Union and rediscover life as a sovereign nation. While for others it amounts to a fatal error following the electorate’s decision which they consider disastrous and destructive in rejecting the EU. For most people, sentiment lies somewhere between the two extremes.
Whatever one’s view, invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was a moment of huge historical and political significance and it’s been a long time coming. Former prime minister David Cameron had announced way back in 2013 he would offer an In/Out referendum, subsequently telling officials in Brussels “I can win this”. He was wrong and paid for his mistake with his departure while his successor Theresa May has steered the country towards this pivotal situation with admirable determination.
May and her chancellor, Philip Hammond backed the Remain campaign — although it is understood that she did so hesitantly — and it was right that she handed the gritty work of delivering Brexit to those who confidently campaigned for it. Of this group, it is David Davis, the Brexit minister who has emerged as the master of his brief. Over the last few months, the government has rolled with the punches delivered by Remain campaigners at the Supreme Court and has marshalled the support of parliament, albeit grudging in places but confidently saw the legislation passed by peers and MPs.
The EU was remarkably disciplined in keeping its silence until the Article 50 letter was served, saying only that “there can be no negotiation without notification”.
Now they have set out their own red lines and in quick response to May’s letter the EU has made it clear that Britain must agree to negotiate terms of Brexit before any talk can take place on a trade deal.
Away from Brussels, there had been encouraging noises from some member states — particularly Germany — indicating a desire for a mutually beneficial free-trade arrangement. Perhaps that might eventually be the outcome, difficult as it may seem at the moment. The time-frame is likely to be prolonged. It is doubtful the UK can negotiate its exit (and its new deal) within the twoyear time-frame, but the government is in a fairly strong position to make progress. The EU won’t make life easy but nor can it afford to punish the UK, they too can have much to lose.
As the disentanglement begins with the negotiations, hundreds of laws need to change. This is the moment when things start to get difficult. Ministers will be hoping to simply transfer EU laws to the British statue book with relative ease and avoid complicated votes in the Houses of Parliament. But that may be easier said than done. Politicians in despair about leaving the EU may see this as their chance to influence Brexit without blocking the ‘will of the people.’
The Conservative MP Anna Soubry, for example, has threatened to ‘ grind the government’s agenda to a standstill’ while Liberal Democrats and Labour MPs could also be a problem. Many on the left in Parliament will be very worried about whether the government sees this as an opportunity to scrap laws protecting workers’ rights, for example. Jeremy Corbyn, the Opposition (Labour Party) leader has warned the prime minister will be acting in a ‘dictatorial and anti-democratic’ manner unless Parliament has a full say on all the issues.
On the other hand, Eurosceptic Conservative MPs will see this as the perfect opportunity to get rid of swathes of Brussels legislation. They will take the view that if the UK is leaving the EU what is then the point of keeping all its red-tape and regulations. The prime minister’s battles within the country could get very complicated and that’s even before her perilous negotiations with the EU. It is altogether a difficult road ahead for her.