Syria’s regime on path to come in from the cold
BEIRUT: Almost eight years into Syria’s civil war, President Bashar Al Assad seems closer than ever to securing a comeback at home and in the Arab region, analysts say.
As 2018 ends, the Moscowbacked government in Damascus is in control of nearly two-thirds of Syria, after notching up a string of victories against rebels and extremists. And after a shock announcement by the US this month that it is to pull all 2,000 of its troops out of Syria, the regime also seems on track to regain influence in parts of the country under Kurdish-led control.
On Friday, Damascus sent troops to a northern area near the border with Turkey to stave off a long-threatened Turkish assault on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces there.
It did so at the invitation of the Kurds, who feel exposed by the shock withdrawal announcement by the US, their principal backer. The Kurds reaching out to the regime represented the latest in a string of achievements for Assad, said Mutlu Civiroglu, an expert in Kurdish affairs.
“He is consolidating his power day by day diplomatically and militarily,” he said. Assad had previously threatened to retake SDF-held oil-rich territory, whether through ongoing talks or by force.
“Rather than fighting with the Kurds, the government is now invited by the Kurds to enter these regions,” Civiroglu said.
“There can be nothing better than this for Assad,” the analyst added. Aside from SDF-held northeastern Syria, the rebelheld region of Idlib remains beyond Assad’s control, but is subject to a ceasefire deal.
The SDF are battling to expel the last IS group fighters from their eastern holdout near the Iraqi border. But the extremists also retain a presence in the country’s vast Badia desert.
Kurdish fighters have spearheaded the fight against IS in Syria, and the presence of US-led coalition members alongside the SDF in northern Syria had previously deterred Turkey from attacking. The US announcement last week sparked renewed fears of an assault, after two previous Turkish incursions inside the war-torn country.
But President Donald Trump’s pullout order has also sent a message to fellow Arab countries in the region, says Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Centre for a New American Security.
“Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from Syria sent the signal to the Arab states that they need to engage with Assad on their own terms and not wait for US policy to come into focus,” he said.
Even before any US troops pull out, a drive to bring Assad back into the Arab fold seems to have picked up momentum in recent weeks. The United Arab Emirates embassy in Damascus reopened on Thursday, ten days after Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir made the first visit of any Arab leader to the Syrian capital since the start of the war. Bahrain has announced it will re-open its diplomatic mission.
Syria’s war has killed more than 360,000 people and displaced millions since it began with the brutal repression of anti-Assad protests in 2011.
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