Pakistan Today (Lahore)

Quad 2.0: Showing a Cold War mentality?

How will it be affected by AUKUS?

- muhammad asif baloch The writer can be contacted at Muahammada­sif94@gmail.com

THe revival of the Quadrilate­ral security Dialogue (Quad) and the formation of aukus as a new pact, entails a rapid geostrateg­ic shift in the contempora­ry geopolitic­al structure. the Usa’s strategic reposition­ing from the war on terrorism and counter-insurgency campaigns in the Middle east and afghanista­n to a deeper strategic engagement in the indo-pacific region make a good strategic sense to deal with rising China. in recent years, the Usa along with its Quad partners has become closer and has emerged as the weightiest democratic bulwark against China’s growing power.

the purpose and nature of Quad as a democratic partnershi­p is still evolving. it was initially formulated by the Us, australia, Japan, and india as an informal relief group to cope with natural calamities and humanitari­an assistance in the indo-pacific region. But in the last decade, it has been strengthen­ing as a countermea­sure to emerging threats taking place in the Pacific and the indian Ocean. among these common challenges, the rise of China is at the forefront of their strategic partnershi­p.

the Quad strategic partnershi­p has had peaks and valleys in history owing to the dynamic nature of global politics and the varying interests of the member states. the group emerged in 2004, lost its momentum since 2007, and then revitalize­d in 2017. in 2004, it appeared for the first time as an informal consultati­ve group after the asian earthquake and tsunami which hit the indo-pacific region. Consequent­ly, india, Japan, australia with the supervisio­n of the Usa formed the ‘tsunami Core Group’ for post-disaster humanitari­an assistance and developmen­tal aid. this version till 2008 was an ad hoc consultati­ve platform. shinzo abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, played a leading role. in august 2007, abe delivered a speech ‘confluence of the two seas’ at the indian Parliament, connecting the indian and Pacific Oceans into a single strategic system because of the growing economic and strategic connectivi­ty of the region.the Quad formally gets its name in the first explorator­y meeting on May 2007 during a high-level meeting of the asean held in Manila. Furthermor­e, the strategic relations among the Quad members strengthen­ed in september 2007, when they started a series of naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal, known as the ‘Malabar exercise’. then, the Quad security dialogue faltered because of two major events. First, shinzo abe was replaced by Yasuo Fukuda as the newly elected PM of Japan, who initiated a period of good relations with China. secondly, australia under new PM kevin Rudd indicated that the group would no longer serve its national interest. as a result, the Quad became suspended.

Finally, after a long time of its delay, the group revived in 2017. the revised version of the group is named ‘Quad 2.0’ and holds a broad vision for a ‘free, open, inclusive, multilater­al, resilient and rules-based indo-pacific region.’ However, the resurgence of Quad after an unproducti­ve start since 2007, has been motivated by the strategic threats coming from the rise of Chinese economic and military power across the region. as of 2021, all Quad leaders are becoming more aligned in their common interests and shared concerns arising from the indopacifi­c region, especially from China. in March 2021, the Us President organized a virtual meeting of Quad, attended by the leaders from india, australia, and Japan.

the joint statement of the summit, “spirit of the Quad”, held a broader vision of an inclusive indo-pacific and documented that “the four countries “bring diverse perspectiv­es and are united in a shared vision for the free and open indo-pacific.” Furthermor­e, the statement also proclaimed the formation of three groups, within the framework of the Quad, which comprise the Vaccine expert Group, the Critical and emerging technology Working Group, and the Climate Working Group.

there are numerous shared strategic concerns of the member states leading towards the rejuvenati­on of the Quad. the core areas of convergenc­e in the indo-pacific region consist of: freedom of navigation and security of sea lines of communicat­ions, a rules-based internatio­nal order based on liberal values and inclusivit­y, joint initiative­s dealing with maritime security and developmen­t of like-minded nations, cooperatio­n

to identify common challenges like cyber threats, climate change, and natural calamities. But what really unites the Quad members is the spectre of China’s expanding economic, military, and strategic ambitions throughout the region.

On the contrary, China has quite opposed the revitaliza­tion of the Quad. she interprets the Quad through the strategic lens of ‘Wei Qi’, which means encircleme­nt strategy, and called the initiative a ‘cold war mentality’. immediatel­y after of the Quad’s March summit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry asserted,“it is hundred percent outdated and we hope relevant countries will refrain from forming closed and exclusive cliques.” For China’s government officials and analysts, the Quad security dialogue solely deals with the security dimension and the economic spectrum is missing that will lead the partnershi­p into decline soon. However, the failure or success of this security dialogue depends upon China’s convincing power on how Beijing will unite and integrate the regional countries under the umbrella of its mega initiative.

Besides that, there is a general perception among strategic and security analysts that the Quad will not be productive owing to certain challenges and misunderst­andings among member states. First, there is a massive demand for burden-sharing of the Usa from the Quad members. But these countries do not want to succumb to certain bloc politics in which the cost is higher than the benefits. secondly, Quad doesn’t have a clearly defined vision in the region, and still ambiguitie­s exist among member states. thirdly, Japan, australia, and india have their national identities and are seeking to play a more active role as independen­t regional players. as important stakeholde­rs concerning their economic and military capabiliti­es, they don’t want to be characteri­zed as mere buckcatche­rs. Finally, the economic factor is missing throughout the scenario.

similarly, in the first in-person meeting of Quad on september 2021 held in Washington DC, leaders from the member states collective­ly agreed upon,“we stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territoria­l integrity of states.” While China was not mentioned as a direct strategic threat to their interests, but they insisted on a rules-based regional order where China is strengthen­ing its economic and military muscles.

Hence, for Quad to become an active and constructi­ve alliance system, it needs to offer a multidimen­sional approach towards common challenges in the indo-pacific region. it is highly required, if Quad is serious about the regional balance of power, that it should propose an alternativ­e to Chinese economic diplomacy. in contempora­ry world politics, nations are more independen­t in their policies than during the Cold war. today, economic advantage matters more than the ideologica­l blocs.

similarly, aukus as a trilateral security pact between the Us, australia, and the Uk created controvers­ies across the indo-pacific and beyond. this hub-and-spoke alliance system of the Usa will broaden the strategic gap between the Quad partners. as indian Foreign secretary shri Harsh stated, “this trilateral security partnershi­p is neither relevant to the Quad nor will it have any impact on its functionin­g.”

Hence, for Quad to become an active and constructi­ve alliance system, it needs to offer a multidimen­sional approach towards common challenges in the Indo-pacific region.

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