Ground zero for climate change consequences

Pakistan is being made to pay for other countries’ bad behaviour

ONE of the largest risks facing our planet this century is global warming. Over the past 100 years, Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.74°C due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in severe climatic changes that cause natural disasters including cyclones, floods, famines, and droughts. Loss of habitat, deforestation, damage to aquatic ecosystems, migration of species, extinction, and changed plant growth seasons are all consequences of climate change.

Pakistan is severely impacted by global warming despite accounting for a negligible portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. The changing climate threatens Pakistan’s biodiversity, leading to habitat degradation and potential species extinction, threatening environmental sustainability and livelihoods. The increased frequency of natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, displaces communities and strains the country’s infrastructure. Over the past 50 years, Pakistan has experienced a rise in tropical cyclones, causing a rise in annual mean surface temperatures. This has been exacerbated by a decrease in cloud cover and increased sunshine hours in central Pakistan. The highest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan was 53.7 °C (128.7 °F) on 28 May 2017, and 26 May 2010, at Turbat, Balochistan, and Moenjodaro, Sindh, respectively. Not only was it the highest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, but it was also the fourth-highest temperature ever recorded on Earth and the hottest accurately measured temperature ever recorded on the Asian continent. The world record rainfall of 620 millimetres (24 in) was reached in Islamabad on 23 July 2001. In just ten hours, that record-breaking downpour happened. The Karachi Tidal Station reports a 1.1 mm/yr increase in mean sea level over the past 100 years. The sea is devouring land, consuming 80 acres a day on average.

According to the Human Development Index, Pakistan is ranked 125th, and its climate is expected to change more than average. The main factor contributing to Pakistan’s long-term natural hazard mortality is the country’s vulnerability to several natural disasters. High rates of poverty and malnourishment, its marginalised people, and its political environment makes it highly prone to disasters. Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country in the world most affected by climate change, according to the 2023 Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch, with an annual cost of $14 billion, or five percent of GDP. Climate change is also affecting food security, leading to acute malnutrition and devastating weather disasters. Thousands of homes now experience food insecurity, with tragic incidents countrywide. Pakistan also faces an annual median probability of severe meteorological and hydrological drought, with a probability of 25 percent-65 percent across the country. The probability of meteorological drought is projected to increase under all emissions pathways, with very strong increases. The transition of large areas to ecological zones is causing drought frequency to increase, causing significant damage to crops and livelihoods.

A study by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (2021) reveals that Pakistan is facing a significant increase in global temperatures, with a potential rise of 1.3°C - 4.9°C by 2090. This rise is expected to be stronger than average, putting pressure on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Changes to Pakistan’s rainfall and runoff regimes are uncertain, but an increase in drought conditions is likely.

Extreme climate events are expected to increase, increasing disaster risk, particularly for vulnerable poor and minority groups. Flooding is expected to affect around 5 million people by 2035-2044 and 1 million annually by 2070-2090. Projections suggest yield declines in key food and cash crops, and temperature increases are likely to strain urban dwellers and outdoor labourers, increasing the risk of heat-related sickness and death.

Climate change is creating uncertainty for Pakistan’s water supplies, especially in the Indus Basin. The Karakoram glaciers are predicted to be impacted by variations in seasonality and yearly rainfall brought on by climate change. The immediate effects of climate change could not be as big as the demand from people and inadequate irrigation and storage infrastructure. Seasonal variations, decreased runoff, and the melting of glaciers are all expected effects of longterm temperature increases. Pakistan’s important concerns are the depletion of reservoirs and the strain on groundwater, significant land degradation, desertification, and dryland expansion due to human activities such as overgrazing, over-exploitation of water resources, over-cultivation, and excessive fertilizer use.

The Ministry of Climate Change in Pakistan was established in 2019 to address climate change adaptation, energy conservation, and fuel mix optimization. Research indicates that changing weather patterns will lead to more intense droughts, heat waves, and stronger tropical cyclones. To combat these events, policies to prevent floods and droughts, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as investing in climate-smart agriculture, implementing water conservation and management initiatives, and transitioning to renewable energy sources, are needed.

International cooperation is crucial as global warming effects require concerted efforts to create a sustainable future for generations to come. Pakistan needs to address the declining productivity of its agrifood system, build resilient cities, accelerate a transition to sustainable energy and low-carbon transport, strengthen human capital, and align financing policies to support climate action. These measures include repurposing subsidies, promoting climate-smart agriculture, reducing energy costs, improving water, sanitation, hygiene, and education. A comprehensive financing strategy involving private sectors and international support is crucial for achieving sustainable and inclusive development. Pakistan is at ground zero for the effects of global climate change and bearing the brunt of global extreme heat illness requiring global assistance to mitigate its consequences and prevent unavoidable human casualties.

International cooperation is crucial as global warming effects require concerted efforts to create a sustainable future for generations to come. Pakistan needs to address the declining productivity of its agri-food system, build resilient cities, accelerate a transition to sustainable energy and low-carbon transport, strengthen human capital, and align financing policies to support climate action.