Afghanistan’s deteriorating situation The political and security challenges for Pakistan

THE US withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked the end of a 20-year occupation, allowing the Taliban to retake control of the country. Despite promises of human rights upholding, the reality on the ground has been different, leading to concerns over the fate of Afghanistan’s population, particularly women, minorities, and those resisting Taliban rule. The Taliban is focusing on policies similar to those of the 1990s regime.

This is due to the vast size of Afghanistan, where Kabul is vastly different from rural areas and cities, allowing local commanders and fighters to implement their radical Sharia law. But recently, the two main Taliban figures in Afghanistan have written messages for Eid-ul-fitr that reflect the disagreements between the hardliners and the more moderate factions who wish to abandon more stringent regulations and win over more outside backing.

The statements were made by Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, who urged the Taliban to be modest and refrain from acting in a way that would annoy Afghans, and Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, who defended the imposition of Islamic law and denounced the international community for its criticism. A worldwide audience was also targeted by the messages, which asked for assistance and investment from other countries.

Over 45 years of conflict in Afghanistan has weakened coping mechanisms, leading to concerns about a potential humanitarian catastrophe. Since the Taliban De-facto Authorities transition, aid has been suspended, and humanitarian need has increased by 48 percent, with 29 million Afghans requiring assistance. By end-2023, four million Afghans were acutely malnourished, including 3.2 million children under 5. A ban on women working with NGOS aggravated the crisis, making it harder to deliver aid and monitor the needs of women and girls.

The situation worsened last year when Pakistan planned to repatriate over 1 million illegal Afghan refugees and immigrants. That now represents a multigenerational displacement crisis, with one out of every ten refugees in the world being Afghan by birth in 2023. By end-2024, one out of every five refugees will come from Afghanistan, resulting in around 6.1 million Afghan refugees. On top of it, the climate crisis in Afghanistan is adding to the misery and posing a significant threat to hundreds of thousands of Afghans, as the country is highly affected by climate change and poorly equipped to handle its effects. Between 1951 and 2021, the country experienced a mean annual temperature increase of 1.8ºc, double the global average. This, combined with failing water and sanitation infrastructure, has led to a national water crisis affecting 10 million people, raising alarms about food security, nutrition, and healthcare.

Pakistan has serious political and security issues as a result of the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s comeback. Due to the frequent spillover of the Afghan conflict into Pakistan, the country’s long and porous border with Afghanistan has presented both opportunities and challenges.

Pakistan’s backing of the Taliban insurgency in the past had caused tensions with the Afghan government and made attempts to mediate a political settlement more difficult. A power vacuum left by the fall of the Afghan government might be tapped into by a number of terrorist organisations, including those that are antagonistic to Pakistan. Extremist groups directly threaten Pakistan’s security and stability from Afghanistan, which heightens worries about the rebirth of insurgency and terrorism along the border.

Pakistan has urgent security concerns as a result of the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, where anti-pakistan militants have found a safe haven due to the presence of terrorist organisations and the refugee inflow.

Particularly in areas of Pakistan where the Pashtun population is sizable, the unrest in Afghanistan has the potential to rekindle ethnic and sectarian strife. There are wider ramifications for regional peace, security, and economic growth from the worsening circumstances in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s comeback poses a danger to peacekeeping and stability initiatives in Afghanistan, imperilling advancements made in the previous 20 years. Addressing common issues and creating a more secure and prosperous future for all as both the nations depend heavily on regional collaboration and communication. To attain stability, the Taliban must first put institutional change, national unity, and reconciliation. Progress requires inclusive administration as well as political rapprochement between various political and ethnic groups. Afghanistan ought to pursue an inclusive peace process that attends to concerns raised by stakeholders and guarantees that a range of opinions are heard when making decisions. Socioeconomic conditions may be improved and conflict reasons can be addressed by making investments in infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Afghanistan ought to participate in regional cooperation programmes in order to stimulate economic growth, improve connectivity, and build neighbourly trust.

Pakistan has to take on the growing unrest in Afghanistan with a comprehensive plan that prioritises security, economic, and diplomatic facets. This entails fostering communication and understanding amongst Afghan stakeholders, interacting with partners both domestically and abroad, strengthening border security measures to thwart militant incursions, and emphasising socioeconomic development programmes in border areas to combat marginalisation and instability. Pakistan is at a critical juncture in its fight against terrorism, a moral imperative that safeguards its citizens from extremism and violence.

This commitment not only upholds its global reputation but also reinforces its security apparatus. However, the stakes are high, and Pakistan must remain vigilant against external actors exploiting the chaos for geopolitical agendas. Pakistan can safeguard its sovereignty and prevent attempts to destabilise the region by maintaining a state of perpetual alertness. This strategy not only reduces terrorism but also fosters social cohesion and economic expansion, opening the door to a better future for all.

The writer has a PHD in Political Science, and is a visiting faculty member at QAU Islamabad. He can be reached at zafarkhansafdar@yahoo.com and tweets @zafarkhansafdar