The Pak Banker

Steep fall of rupee

-

Remarkable deprecatio­n in the Pakistani has been witnessed in only 100 days since the new government had come to power and the economy had gone into a free fall.

The rise or fall of the Rupee - or any other currency for that matter - is not subject to the whims and wishes of the policymake­rs, or even the Central Bank. It's constraine­d by a variety of factors. As it happens on our planet, anything may be under- or over-valued in the short run, but it may be argued that in the long run, everything - every commodity, every idea, every person, converges to their 'true' value. This applies even to the murky world of currencies. The Rupee had to adjust to its true value ultimately and it did. It did not 'fall' - it was allowed to adjust, something that should have happened way earlier.

For some time now, the Rupee had been grossly overvalued. In July 14, 2007 Article IV consultati­on, the Internatio­nal Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out the overvaluat­ion to be around 10 to 20% with respect to the Real Effective Exchange Rate and iterated its stance in the Staff Report of March 2018. Many independen­t economists also kept ringing alarm bells. But the outgoing government did not want to pursue the highly unpopular policy of devaluatio­n with the elections around the corner. And some experts backed the government's stance on somewhat questionab­le grounds. They pointed out that the Rupee will result in a rise in dollar-denominate­d debt and increase the cost of imports which have become even more important since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has kicked off. Resultantl­y, Rupee was not allowed to take on its actual value.

The Rupee was kept 'strong' as the economy kept weakening. But is the strong Rupee - come what may - such a good thing? Not really.

China is one country which keeps an undervalue­d (weaker?) currency. Instead of fretting about a 'weak' currency, they revel in being the leading exporters in the world. The undervalue­d yuan helps this. A person in, say, the United States, will be able to buy double the amount of any product, say Chinese apples, if $1 equals 6 yuans instead of 3. This will shift the demand for apples from other countries to China. What was happening in Pakistan was an inverted image of the above picture. It is easy to see why an overvalued Rupee meant lesser exports and more imports. A 'stronger' rupee meant imports appeared cheaper to Pakistanis. This imports over exports imbalance caused a run on the foreign reserves in the country. Imports were using up the foreign currency reserves and there weren't as much exports to finance them. This sent the reserves into a free fall.

When the reserves dried up, the Central Bank lost its primary tool to keep the Rupee afloat - selling foreign currency in the currency market. The State Bank could have bought Rupees in the currency market, using forex reserves, causing the Rupee to (nominally) appreciate. This is simply the result of the (artificial) increase in demand for Rupee. It's basic economic logic that anything that is in-demand fetches a higher price, and the same is true for the Rupee.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Pakistan