Strategies failed but NLD will win poll

Burma's democratic government has a chance to win a second term in office in the 2020 election because of Aung San Suu Kyi's fame and her popularity is still strong within the country even though her government is facing many difficulties. Burmese politicians are preparing for elections in 2020 and that includes the military's Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Burmese politics is very complicated with various ethnic issues and armed conflict between ethnic armed groups and the Army (or Tatmadaw) is not going to stop. Both the ruling National League for Democracy party and the military have said they are willing to establish a federal union, but the 2008 constitution drawn up by the military imposes a unitary system.

The NLD and ethnic parties are trying to change parts of the constitution in parliament to a federal democratic one, but the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party and military nominees are making excuses to fight any changes. Military and Ma Ba Tha During the Suu Kyi government's term, the Army "persuaded" two key groups to support the military. Students and monks, who have previously been at the forefront in Burmese politics, are now divided.

One of the ways the military and the USDP did this was by creating a radical Buddhist monk organization called Ma Ba Tha under a policy that lauded "Nationalism, Race, and Buddhism", Ma Ba Tha, which attracted many monks and citizens, claimed that Muslim influence was spreading dangerously and said Buddhists need to protect their religion by any means possible.

This led to instances under which mosques were destroyed or forced to shut down, and Muslims villages burnt down. Muslims were also forced to leave villages in various areas but few legitimate culprits were found and punished properly for these rampages. This was an initial tactical success by the military in terms of dividing Buddhist monks into two groups - one still against military rule and the other backing the military and against the NLD. Ma Ba Tha held a conference that called for people to support the military and demanded that the NLD government be dissolved.

One of Ma Ba Tha's top leaders was Wirathu, whose radical anti-Muslim speeches led to him being labeled as the "Burmese Bin Laden". He even had the nerve to claim the NLD was a Muslim party. His incendiary rhetoric led to Suu Kyi and NLD leaders screening their parliamentary candidates for the 2015 election so "carefully" that not one Muslim was selected.

However, things have changed a lot since then. Two years ago the state-backed cleric organization Ma Ha Na announced that Ma Ba Tha was an unlawful organization, and in May 2017 it banned the group from operating under its current name and ordered that its signboards be taken down. Recently, the Army chief Min Aung Hlaing gave donations to mosques and claimed that he had no desire to discriminate against any religion and wanted all people in Burma belonging to different religions to unite.

Ma Ba Tha did not dare to utter a word about this. While they were happy to strongly criticize the NLD government, they did not have the nerve to criticize the army chief. Why? Because it was the Army that created the radical Buddhist group. The pro-military Buddhist organization's main goal was not to promote Buddhism but attack the NLD and accuse Suu's party of being Muslim sympathizers so that Buddhists would vote for the USDP.

Meanwhile, the NLD offered to rebuild the Student Union building at Yangon University campus, only for students to turn down the government's offer. Some student union leaders said they would prefer a building outside the campus, while others said they would prefer another site in the campus.

The old Student Union building was dynamited by the military on July 8, 1962. For generations students demanded that it be reconstructed but the generals ignored them. Then when a freely-elected government offered to rebuild it, the students turned down the offer. It was ironic. In the 60s and later decades, the military feared student activism. The building was destroyed because it was a meeting place to conspire against military rule. Army leaders never let the students go near the compound and erected a fence around it. After the 1988 nationwide uprising, Sein Pan (Peacock flower) trees were planted in the compound and now the trees have grown well for many years. The intention was to cover the vacant spot and create a small forest - because they didn't want a new student union building to emerge. Now, student activists have said they need to keep it as "ground zero" to mark the brutality of the military, but their true intent is they don't want a new student union building. Burmese students are not active like before, as only a few participate in politics now.