Growth outlook gets murkier
The notable progress made so far in ongoing reforms with a myopic approach to achieving macroeconomic stability is now being underlined by a growing perception that the outlook for economic growth is getting murkier.
According to the UN report titled "World Economic Situation and Prospects," Pakistan's economy is expected to grow at 2.1 per cent in 201920 - i.e. lower than the earlier growth rate forecasts by multilateral agencies supporting the reforms agenda, and close to half of Islamabad's targeted rate. And to quote an independent analyst, economic activities continue to lose momentum without interruption since its initial signs appeared in December 2018.
"The economy is likely to recover slightly from 2020-21 onwards as the increase in government revenue from a tax hike allowing expanded public investment and other economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) begins to bear fruit," says the UN report.
There is a strong opinion that inflation is squeezing the space for commodity production with the simultaneous erosion of purchasing power, curtailing domestic demand for goods. On the external front, sluggish exports pose a daunting challenge.
The domestic environment is not conducive for fresh investment and economic growth
Former adviser to the finance ministry Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan says that a high discount rate has "severally crippled" economic activity. Quoting a State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) working paper, he says a 1pc increase in the policy rate contributes to a 0.7pc increase in inflation. He observed that Pakistan was facing cost-push inflation, not demand-pull inflation.
In its latest update, the IMF's World Economic Outlook report has projected inflation at 13pc for 2019-20 against 7.3pc in 2018-19.
The rupee was stated to be 4pc undervalued in September 2019 when compared to its effective exchange rate, fuelling import-related inflation.
Inflation has emerged as the most important source for the government to raise revenues. Of the 17pc increase in tax revenue in July-December, inflation contributed 12 percentage points, economic growth three percentage points, and tax policy and administrative measures two percentage points.
Dwelling on the contribution of various sectors to tax revenue, former finance minister Dr Hafiz Pasha says 70pc of the national revenue is generated from the large-scale manufacturing sector. With the manufacturing sector hit by negative 6pc growth in the first five months of the fiscal year and the construction industry expansion constrained by low federal and provincial development spending, Dr Pasha concludes: "(The) overall outlook for GDP growth is depressing. This will have a negative impact on the level of employment and poverty." The IMF sees unemployment rising by one percentage point to 6.2pc in 2019-20.
Addressing businessmen, President Arif Alvi stressed the need for the private sector to create jobs and stop the brain drain by creating conducive working environment. Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry President Anjum Nisar responded by saying that high interest rates were a major hurdle in investment and business.