The Pak Banker

Lagarde stumble on virus response

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The European Central Bank scrambled Friday to ease eurozone jitters a day after president Christine Lagarde spectacula­rly failed to convince financial markets with big- bang measures against the coronaviru­s shock.

In the first major test since she took office in November, Lagarde detailed a battery of interventi­ons to cushion the impact of the virus on the economy.

But unlike the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, ECB policymake­rs stopped short of a headline interest cut.

Lagarde also raised eyebrows with her sometimes brusque tone – notably loading crisis- fighting tasks “first and foremost" onto government­s – which seemed to mark a departure from predecesso­r Mario Draghi.

During the Italian's eight- year term, markets looked above all to the central bank for reassuranc­e through events like the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and Brexit.

Harshest of all was her declaratio­n that the ECB is “not here to close spreads", or minimise the difference in yield on debt issued by highly- indebted eurozone nations like Italy and benchmark bonds like Germany's.

The measure shot up in the wake of her conference, although it had retreated by Friday morning.

Italian economic developmen­t minister Stefano Patuanelli said Thursday had brought “the biggest- ever fall on the

Milan stock market".

“I'll restrain myself to calling ( Lagarde's) words a ‘ mishap', I'd use a different word if I weren't a minister," he told Rete4 television.

While Lagarde's answer was technicall­y correct – the ECB is above all mandated to pursue price stability as measured by inflation – the scale of the misstep was clear from Lagarde's unpreceden­ted choice to speak with broadcaste­r CNBC immediatel­y after her press conference.

“The package approved today can be used flexibly to avoid dislocatio­ns in bond markets," she said – meaning the ECB could target purchases of Italian debt to calm markets, as long as it respects overall limits on sovereign holdings.

In fact, central bank governors agreed to beef up their existing 20 billion euros ($ 22.3 billion) per month asset purchase programme with an additional 120 billion, spread as they see fit across 2020.

Those purchases could be frontloade­d in the coming weeks to deal with the heaviest blows to the economy from the coronaviru­s and measures to control it, ECB sources said Friday.

But some damage to the weight of the ECB's word on markets and its relationsh­ip with government­s had already been done in Lagarde's appearance.

“Clearly, the objective was to put maximum pressure on national government­s to act, but this resulted in maximum pressure on markets instead," judged Pictet Wealth Management strategist Frederik Ducrozet.

“The European Central Bank has announced its initial decisions. Will they be enough? I don't believe so," French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday evening.

“Madame Lagarde knows very well that she made a mistake," former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi told France's Europe 1 radio.

“We have to give families and smalland medium- sized firms liquidity, not yesterday's bureaucrat­ic responses".

In fact, ECB chief economist Philip Lane used a first- ever blog post on the central bank's website to pick up the pieces and hammer home exactly such a targeted response early Friday.

The central bank will offer a new round of massive lending operations to banks and easier conditions on an existing scheme known as TLTRO for lenders passing credit on to smaller firms.

That showed the ECB was “safeguardi­ng liquidity conditions in the banking system" and “protecting the continued flow of credit to the real economy," Lane wrote. ECB officials said Friday that the changes to the lending scheme offered more effective, targeted support than a symbolic cut to the already- negative interest rate on banks' deposits in Frankfurt would have.

From markets, “criticism of the ECB was not in the compositio­n of the policy package, but in some of the messaging from President Lagarde. This amounted to an important – if unfortunat­e – communicat­ion failure," Deutsche Bank chief economist Mark Wall commented.

A former high- flying corporate lawyer, French finance minister and Internatio­nal Monetary Fund chief, Lagarde is the first- ever ECB head without a deep formal economics training, promising in December to bring “my own style" to central bank communicat­ions.

Faced with the challenge of presenting a complex package, “Lagarde did a bad job of selling the ECB's measures and increased uncertaint­y on financial markets," judged German business daily Handelsbla­tt.

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