Threat of cyber-terrorism

Cyber-terrorism an underestimated risk capable of generating catastrophic losses. The challenge of protecting against cyber threats is made more difficult by the involvement of nation states in sponsoring acts of international cyber aggression via their proxies.

In the aftermath of the events of September 11, 2001, several innovative scenarios for terrorist attacks were postulated, but the vast majority were far beyond the capabilities of terror groups. Indeed, the tradecraft required to employ technology and tools effectively remains an important limiting factor, particularly against more harden targets such as critical infrastructures.

On the other hand, state-sponsored terrorism creates far more opportunity for a devastating attack, but any hint of a state-sponsored terror incident will likely be met with retaliation. However, cyber terror attacks that are done anonymously by a state operative

is or a proxy reduce the chances of reprisals. Accordingly, it is possible to postulate numerous novel cyberattack scenarios that might have a realistic chance of success, if sponsored or resourced by a state.

Cyberattacks can be a very effective asymmetric tool for causing damage to more militarily powerful adversaries. Cyber campaigns run by nation-states are a vital tool of statecraft and a lowpriced way to retaliate against its adversaries. They range from nuisance webpage defacements to espionage and could escalate to attacks that cause serious disruption that might lead to loss of life.

Many states today also project their power in cyberspace through non-state proxy groups. Based on the Council of Foreign Relations' Cyber Operation Tracker, there are at least 28 countries that are suspected of sponsoring cyber operations via a proxy group. Moreover, several of these countries are potential adversaries of the West, including China, Russia, North