Wall Street banks see economic boom ahead

The mood on Wall Street is decidedly jubilant. Just a year ago, as the coronavirus raged across the country, the nation's largest banks were anticipating economic devastation. They set aside billions of dollars to gird against the huge losses that could follow, as record numbers of people lost their jobs, office buildings emptied out and small businesses closed.

It's an entirely different story today. Executives at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo delivered a bullish economic forecast. They said that consumers - their wallets padded by stimulus money are itching to spend and companies are rushing to expand by buying or building new businesses, as the United States emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic.

"It is clear to me that the U.S. is poised for a strong recovery this year, led by consumer spending that is rebounding to pre-Covid levels," David M. Solomon, chief executive of Goldman Sachs, told analysts on a conference call. "This sentiment is reflected in the capital markets."

Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase, the country's largest bank by assets, took a similar view. "We believe that the economy has the potential to have extremely robust, multiyear growth," Mr. Dimon said in a statement. He attributed his outlook to government spending on stimulus and infrastructure, supportive policies from the Federal Reserve and high hopes for the end of the pandemic.

This all bodes well for banks, which began reporting their quarterly earnings this week. Goldman and JPMorgan reported profits roughly five times as high as in the first three months of 2020, thanks to a combination of strong business results and a reduction in the amount of money they had put aside to cover losses on loans. Wells Fargo reported profits that were seven times as high.

Mike Novogratz, a veteran trader who runs a financial firm focused on cryptocurrencies, called the bank results "a testament" to what happens when there's as much readily available money to invest "in the system as we have." He predicted an imminent pickup in travel, entertainment, socializing and investing that would be reminiscent of the Roaring Twenties. He said investors should thank the

Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome H. Powell, for taking steps to support the economy, such as purchasing financial assets and keeping interest rates low.

There are enough sobering signs to temper Wall Street's optimism. Infections and hospitalizations are still climbing in some areas of the country, even as the vaccination rollout gathers steam. The recent decision to pause the one-shot vaccine offered by Johnson & Johnson - one of three vaccines approved by the United States - and the reluctance of as many as one in four Americans to be inoculated, could slow the country's march toward herd immunity. And the trends benefiting large banks have not reached Main Street businesses, many of which are still struggling. Moreover, the recovery is likely to be uneven, hurting those who were struggling before the pandemic more so than those who held on to steady jobs.

But for the banks that reported results, the balance of evidence clearly tilts toward improvement. Bank earnings this quarter reveal "a dramatic shift, if you will, from an unprecedented downdraft in growth over the course of Covid and now in effect, a dramatic V-like pickup in what's happening to the broader economy," Stephen Scherr, Goldman's chief financial officer, said in an interview.

Expectations for that pickup were reflected in moves by all three banks to reduce the cushion they had set aside at the start of the pandemic to withstand continued losses from credit cards, mortgages and other loans they had made. JPMorgan released $5.2 billion of that credit cushion, and Wells reduced its cushion by $1.6 billion. Wells also noted that charge-offs cases where the bank declares that it won't be able to collect on a delinquent loan - were at a historic low. Goldman, a far smaller player in the consumer business, also reduced what it had set aside by about $200 million.

Strength in the banks' investing, lending and trading businesses added to the euphoria. All three reported robust revenues across multiple lines of business, driven by a combination of active and rising markets, a flurry of new mortgage activity and the boom in special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Corporate merger and acquisition activity also marked an all-time high by dollar value.