Avoiding hot war

Talk of war has become louder in recent days, but the "drumbeat" has been heard for some time now as China's military capabilities have grown. China does not want war, at least not yet. It's playing the long game and its evident intentions have become more unnerving.

Scholars such as Brendan Taylor, associate professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, have identified four flashpoints for a possible conflict with China, including Korea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and Taiwan, but conventional war is not likely at this stage.

The armistice between North and South Korea has held for nearly 70 years. The Covid-19 pandemic has severely constrained North Korea's economy and its testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles has ceased, for now. China has a stake in keeping Kim Jong Un's regime in power in the North, but the prospects of reverting to a hot war have flowed and ebbed.

Just south of Korea, in the East China Sea, China has intensified its military activities around the Japanese-claimed but uninhabited

Senkaku Islands. China appears to be wearing down Japan's resolve to resist its claims over what Beijing calls the Diaoyu Islands.

The United States has assured Japan the islands fall under their mutual defense security guarantee. But a confrontation with China could test US backing and possibly set the stage for escalated confrontation elsewhere.

Similarly, China's industrialscale island-building in the South China Sea has resulted in extensive military hardware and infrastructure. This will enable the Chinese to consolidate their position militarily and assert control over the so-called nine-dash line - its vast claim over most of the sea.

The US Navy continues to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) in the sea to challenge China's claims. With thousands of marked and unmarked Chinese vessels operating there, however, the risk of an accident triggering an escalation is real.

In 2016, an international tribunal rejected China's claims to the waters in a case brought by the Philippines. Despite being a signatory to the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), China has ignored the tribunal's ruling and continued to intrude on islands claimed by both the Philippines and Indonesia.

Recently, 220 Chinese vessels were anchored for months at a reef inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. China's actions appear premised on the dictum that possession is nine-tenths of the law.

Like China's seizure of the Scarborough Shoal in 2012 that preceded its massive island construction further south, China could conceivably take the unwillingness of the US to challenge its latest moves as a cue for more assertive action over Taiwan.

This is, after all, the main prize Beijing seeks to secure President Xi Jinping's legacy.

Why Taiwan's security matters Taiwan presents the US and its allies with a conundrum. It is a liberal open democracy and the world's leading computer-chip maker. It also sits in the middle of what military strategists refer to as the "first island chain" stretching from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south. Its strategic significance is profound.

Having adopted a "one China" policy since 1979, the US security guarantee for Taiwan is conditional and tenuous. Reflecting growing unease over China's actions, polls show strong US public support for defending Taiwan.

So far, ambiguity has served

US interests well, providing some assurance to Taiwan while discouraging the People's Republic of China from invading.

This guarantee has been important for Japan, as well. With its pacifist constitution, and occasional concern over US commitment to its defense, Japan would be closely watching how the US approaches its Taiwan policy.

Meanwhile, China has metamorphosed both economically and militarily. An exponential growth in China's military capabilities has been matched by a steep rise in the lethality, accuracy, range and quantity of its weapons systems. On top of this, Beijing has ratcheted up its warlike rhetoric and tactics.

Last month, Xi made a muscular speech to the Boao Forum Asia, calling for an acceptance of China not only as an emerging superpower but also as an equal in addressing global challenges.

Sometimes actions speak louder than words. And China's actions so far have avoided crossing the threshold into open warfare, refusing to present a "nail" to a US "hammer." This is for good reason.

If war did break out, China would be vulnerable.