Southeast Asia's Russian dilemma as summits loom

BANGKOK: Southeast Asian countries look set to maintain ties with Russia as a trio of global summits loom, despite US-led efforts to isolate Moscow over its Ukraine invasion.

The Ukraine conflict and its repercussions-higher fuel, energy and food costs and supply chain disruptions-will loom over the back-to-back gatherings in Phnom Penh, Bali and Bangkok. The diplomatic whirl begins this week with a gathering of leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has been largely muted on the invasion of Ukraine-with the exception of Singapore, which imposed sanctions.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked to send a video message to ASEAN and has been invited to attend the G20 summit in Bali, which follows it, in person.

G20 host Indonesia has sought to carve out a peacemaker role, inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as Zelensky, though neither has confirmed his presence. At ASEAN, Ukraine will sign a "treaty of amity and cooperation", the first step towards establishing formal relations.

Despite these gestures, analysts expect ASEAN nations to continue their longstanding policy of strategic fence-sitting. "I think what the bloc will do is continue cooperation with Russia in a very business-as-usual fashion," Joanne Lin from Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute told AFP. "Many member states are very good at compartmentalising issues."