Putin's darkening shadows
As winter draws near, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself surrounded by darkening shadows of the existential kind. Traditionally throughout Europe, the Winter Solstice marks the beginning of ghost storytelling and deadly fairy tales - most based on elements of truth. In the 15ht century it was Vlad the Impaler, the real-life Dracula. Today, it is "Mad Vlad" who is imperiling the West and in need of a wooden stake being driven into the heart of his Kievan Rus' dreams of a renewed Russian empire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO are doing their collective best to drive that stake into the core of Putin's military in Ukraine, particularly in the Donbass and in the Kherson Oblast where, reportedly, deaths of Russian soldiers now top 100,000 overall. Putin's end and that of his demigod-like oligarchs are drawing near under the deepening shadows gathering over the Kremlin. We are, in Richard Wagner Germanic operatic terms, in Götterdämmerung - the twilight of the Gods.
NATO and its Article 5 "collective defense obligations" - alongside its nuclear capable umbrella - is the largest shadow looming over Putin. As Moscow registers continued retreats after defeats in Ukraine, NATO, in partnership with Washington, London and the European Union, steps ever closer to being "all-in," save boots on the ground. Moreover, as a direct unintended consequence of Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine, NATO and the shadow it casts on Russia soon will be significantly larger - and more powerful - with the addition of Sweden and Finland into the alliance.
Ominous shadows coming from unexpected directions and putative allies - including Chinese President Xi Jinping - also are encroaching on Putin. During a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Xi declared that the global order must "jointly oppose the use of, or threats to use, nuclear weapons." Putin was clearly Xi's intended audience after a month of Russian false-flag claims and gamesmanship about Ukrainian "dirty bombs."
Even the Union State between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation is being besieged by darkening clouds that are likely to cast a shadow on Putin's winter. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is not popular - nor is his support of Putin's war in Ukraine. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is actively at work in Lithuania plotting Lukashenko's ouster and reportedly orchestrating acts of sabotage in Belarus to undermine Russia's military machinations against Kyiv.
If Tsikhanouskaya wins - not unlikely given the seemingly death spiral Lukashenko is caught in with Putin - the Union State is likely headed toward disunion.
Other external clouds and shadows loom as well. Cracks are forming in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Comprising six former Soviet Union-era states - Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - only Minsk has directly supported Putin's military war machine. Fear of Western sanctions such as those imposed upon Belarus looms large and, by example, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov canceled a joint military training exercise entitled, ironically, "Indestructible Brotherhood," and was a no-show for Putin's 70th birthday bash in St. Petersburg.
Not one to lose an opportunity to goad Putin at his own game, especially after the sham referenda in Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, Zelensky recently instructed his Ministry of Foreign Affairs to craft a draft proposal to recognize the "independence of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria."
Zelensky was also taking dead aim at Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov who has been Putin's staunchest foreign supporter of the war. The Ukrainian Parliament recognized Ichkeria's independence in October.
Domestically in Russia, the shadows are quickly growing darker and deeper. Poetically, one such shadow is materializing from another "Wagner" - the Wagner Group, and predominantly in the form of its founder and
chief benefactor, Yevgeny Prigozhin.