How Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacts the world?

With two Arctic states awaiting NATO membership, the recent release of a U.S. Arctic strategy and ongoing Arctic military exercises, there is heightened attention on the region. Eight months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there are now clear and potential long-term consequences for the Arctic.

Predictions are difficult in times of con- flict, but many of these impacts were very likely unintended. Considering this war that is reshaping Europe and the globe, taking stock of the current situation at the top of the world is key to understanding the region's future.

Insight into the future Arctic, with all its complexity and uncertainties, can be gained by examining a set of 10 notable consequences or impacts since the invasion: Shifting Geopolitical Alignment: An unambiguous, fundamental consequence is the new geopolitical alignment of the Arctic states.

When Finland and Sweden are admitted as members, seven of the eight Arctic states will be aligned with NATO. Russia will sit at any future "Arctic state table" with seven NATO members. If Russia continues to threaten any of its Arctic neighbors, violate Ukraine's sovereignty and act outside international norms, cooperation among the eight will be unworkable. The new alignment and ongoing hostilities make cooperation on Arctic military security with Russia difficult if not inconceivable.

Doubt for the Arctic Council's Future: The Ottawa Declaration establishing the Arctic Council, signed in 1996 by the eight Arctic states, was followed by a quarter century of generally close cooperation among the states on sustainable development and environmental protection issues; notably, military security issues were never part of the council dialogue. Quickly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the council paused its work under the agreement of seven Arctic states (less Russia). This decision was made while Russia holds the council chair (2021-2023). When and in what form the council will resume work is unclear. Is this really a temporary halt or will the seven Arctic states begin to cooperate regularly without Russia? A highly plausible future is one where the Arctic Council cannot resume its former operation as a cooperative intergovernmental forum.

Interrupted Economic Development: Arctic natural resource developments - particularly projects in the Russian Arctic have been upended. Global energy and hard minerals commodities markets and prices have all been influenced by Russia's invasion. Economic sanctions on Russia and the exodus of foreign investors from the Russian Arctic have stressed the national economy and are slowing new developments of Arctic liquified natural gas (LNG).

These challenges have led Russia to further strengthen its economic and strategic alliances with China and other states.

Heightened Focus on Military Security: Russia's military buildup in the Arctic prior to the invasion - and during the invasion itself - have renewed efforts by NATO and individual Arctic states to improve their Arctic military capabilities.

Enhanced monitoring and surveillance operations, more frequent joint military exercises and increasing naval and air deployments into the Arctic are elements of a new security future for the region. With its northern reaches within the Arctic, Finland's more than 800-mile border with Russia presents new challenges for Arctic security affairs.

Suspended Arctic Scientific Cooperation: The advance of science has been a hallmark of Arctic cooperation, but this avenue is now greatly curtailed. Russia's government scientists and university researchers have been severed from nearly all Arctic scientific cooperation with the West. However, one practical challenge remains: Russia geographically spans nearly half the Arctic space and access to observations for understanding the Arctic natural system is essential to gaining a circumpolar perspective of profound climate change.

Disrupted Indigenous Voices: The Arctic Indigenous peoples have been a visible and effective presence as permanent participants in the Arctic Council. Their collective voice and the advancement of Indigenous knowledge have been muted by the pausing of the council's work. However, there are new opportunities. For example, the Inuit Circumpolar Council has recently been active as an observer to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and expanded engagement at the United Nations is possible.

Increasing Responsibility for International Organizations: Without the Arctic Council as an influential forum, more onus will be placed on select international organizations to proactively address issues of Arctic safety, environmental protection, needed infrastructure, climate change and scientific research. These are bodies where national delegations and technical experts, including those from Russia, meet regularly (such as the IMO, International Hydrographic Organization and the World Meteorological Organization). Each must include more Arctic discussions among many, complex global issues.

Altered Marine Operations and Shipping: The expectations for global shipping across the Arctic Ocean - essentially new international trade routes - are greatly diminished, specifically along the Russian maritime Arctic which has become more tightly controlled. International investment in any trans-Arctic routing systems focused on using Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) are now no longer plausible.

“However, there are new opportunities. For example, the Inuit Circumpolar Council has recently been active as an observer to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and expanded engagement at the United Nations is possible. Increasing Responsibility for International Organizations: Without the Arctic Council as an influential forum, more onus will be placed on select international organizations to proactively address issues of Arctic safety, environmental protection, needed infrastructure, climate change and scientific research.”