EU’s RES plans offer no certainty regarding East Med gas

Last week at the COP27 Conference in Egypt, Ursula von der Leyen emphasised that “We are not just reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels that is good, but not enough but we are also massively accelerating the development of RES.” In addition, this week European Commission (EC) vice-president Frans Timmermans supported a proposal by India to phase-down all fossil fuels, likely by 2040, starting in 2030.

The EU confirmed this week that its member states have agreed to raise their 2030 climate change emission target as soon as possible, beyond the current 55 per cent. They have also agreed to extend emissions cuts in buildings, transport, agriculture, waste and small industry, aiming for a 40 per cent reduction by 2030 compared to 2005. These targets cannot be achieved without a significant reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels, including natural gas, with potential consequences on the future development of East Med natural gas and RES resources.

So far this year, the EU has reduced natural gas consumption by 16 per cent. In fact, the yearon-year reduction achieved last month was 25 per cent. The REPowerEU strategy commits to expanding this to 30 per cent by 2030, on the way to net-zero by 2050.

The events in Ukraine have changed Europe’s energy policy fundamentally. The goal of reaching net-zero before 2050 still stands. But the immediate priority, now, is to secure energy supplies for the coming winter and mitigate the economic and social impact of the dramatic increases in oil and natural gas prices.

If anything, energy is now a much more immediate political concern than it was a year ago. In the short term, weaning off Russian gas raises concerns about energy security, and that includes securing fossil fuel supplies.

The EC considers natural gas as the main source of energy insecurity and reducing its use has become one of the primary goals of its transition agenda. As a result, the EC sees the shift to low-emission energy sources as even more imperative.

If anything, Europe is speeding-up its exit from fossil fuels, as evidenced by its REPowerEU strategy and recent statements from the European Commission.

But is it realistic? Renewables are coming, but they are not yet reliable and are not an overnight solution – the energy transition is a slow process and will take time. In the meanwhile, uninterrupted, secure and reliable electricity supplies can be ensured only with backup from fossil fuels, preferably gas. In fact, despite advances in renewables, since 1970 fossil fuels have been providing about 80 per cent of global energy.

A recent World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report showed that climate change is causing unusual “lazy winds” in Europe – that is, prolonged periods of slow winds – that make wind power unreliable, requiring support from natural gas, as happened in 2021 – contributing to the energy crisis – and is likely to happen this winter. Similar problems apply to hydropower.