The US-Israel relationship faces new tests
The United States and Israel share a deep and enduring bond, although sometimes American and Israeli leaders have mixed like oil and water.
George H.W. Bush and Yitzhak Shamir were famously incompatible. Benjamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama had a notoriously fraught relationship. And while Washington and Jerusalem haven't always seen eyeto-eye, our elected leaders have looked past discreet personality or policy disagreements because of broader strategic goals.
Simply put, there's mutual benefit derived from working together, rather than apart. As political leaders from both nations emerge from the campaign trail and return to business, they would be wise to focus on finding ways to overcome differences and work together in support of our many shared goals.
Earlier this month, an Israeli journalist asked me how the U.S. midterm elections would impact U.S.-Israeli relations. My answer wasn't particularly dramatic. I told him I believed that not much would change. Most of the hotly contested seats were in "purple" districts where support for Israel remains high across the political spectrum. And while over the course of years, Israel has become an increasingly divisive and partisan issue on the political margins, Israel still enjoys broad, bipartisan support in Congress.
What I wasn't asked - but probably should have been - was this: "What impact will Israel's election results have on the U.S.-Israel relationship?" The answer remains uncertain but Washington is understandably nervous. Netanyahu is a polarizing figure in Washington, in no small part due to the perception that, when last in office, he broke long-sacred norms of keeping Israel above the partisan fray by accepting an invitation from a Republican-held Congress to argue against the Iran nuclear deal, a key foreign policy objective of then-President Obama. Over the course of his resilient political career, Netanyahu has earned a reputation for being willing to do whatever is necessary to achieve his aims - and based on his actions, it won't take long to observe and draw conclusions about what's most important to him.
To succeed in forming a government, Netanyahu almost certainly
will need to offer far-right, ultra-nationalists influential positions in his cabinet. The fact that demagogues such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir could become, respectively, Israel's next Ministers of Defense and Internal Security is chilling to American Jews of all political stripes, and likely has discomfited
Israel's most vocal supporters in Congress. Smotrich and Ben Gvir have engaged in rhetoric so violent and offensive that their possible inclusion in the coming Israeli government preemptively drew a direct and highly unusual warning from the Anti-Defamation League.
The reality is that Netanyahu, facing a series of corruption trials, likely will rely on these individuals and their parties for not just his political future but possibly his personal freedom.
He will need unprecedented and controversial legislative changes to weaken the Israeli judiciary and insulate himself from the prospect of going to jail. While this is likely priority No. 1 for Netanyahu, he may see himself as God's divine instrument in protecting Israel from Iran, which at this moment, has never been closer to developing a nuclear weapon.
To have a credible military deterrent to Iran or a realistic means of militarily disrupting Iran's nuclear program, Israel will need to collaborate closely with Washington. It also remains in Israel's interest to foster greater strategic depth by continuing to develop closer ties with emerging partners in the Gulf, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Their dangerous hate-speech aside, placing Smotrich and Ben Gvir in charge of security files would give them the opportunity to incite renewed conflict with Palestinians, at a moment when escalated tensions have already resulted in violence this year.
This week, a suspected bombing in Jerusalem, the first in six years, will only serve to increase pressure on a new government to respond with visible force. A new round of conflict with Hamas or other factions would consume Israeli military resources at the cost of planning and preparing for contingencies to deal with Iran. Deportations from the West Bank and the annexation of the territories into Israel has been a longtime pillar of their political platform.
The creation of the Abraham Accords in 2020 was predicated on the condition that Israel would not annex the West Bank. That agreement, and the burgeoning relationships that followed with the UAE, Bahrain and potentially other nations in the region, could be imperiled by these newly-empowered ultra-nationalists.