The Pak Banker

Brazil's business confidence index falls in November

- BRASILIA

Brazil's Business Confidence Index for industry (ICEI) fell across the 29 industrial sectors in November, according to a report by the National Confederat­ion of Industry (CNI).

The index dropped 10 points or more in nine sectors, with the biggest drop of 14.1 points registered in lumber products, while the smallest decrease of 4.9 points was seen in the beverage sector.

The largest drop was among medium-sized companies, where the index slipped from 61.2 to 51.2 points; among small companies, it fell from 58.7 to 51.3 points; and at large companies, it dipped from 60.5 to 51.8 points.

In eight industrial sectors, the index fell from showing confidence to lacking confidence.

The index ranges from 0 to 100 points, with 50 and above indicating confidence and anything under signaling a lack of confidence.

Asian markets rallied and the dollar weakened further after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting suggested it could slow the pace of its rate hikes.

The news provided traders with a cushion against concerns about surging Covid-19 cases in China that have fanned speculatio­n authoritie­s will revert to lockdowns and other economical­ly debilitati­ng measures to fight the outbreak.

Wednesday's much-anticipate­d minutes showed most US central bank chiefs felt smaller increases would "likely soon be appropriat­e" as the economy shows signs of weakness following almost a year of monetary tightening.

Bets were growing on officials announcing a 50-basis-point lift at their December gathering, down from four straight 75-point hikes.

The latest indicators showed the manufactur­ing and services sectors continued to contract last month, while jobless claims picked up.

The developmen­ts allowed Wall Street traders to head off to their Thanksgivi­ng break with a spring in their step, the S&P 500 ending at a two-month high as they finally see a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel after a painful year.

Asia mostly followed suit, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Mumbai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta all positive, though Shanghai dipped and Wellington barely moved.

Kuala Lumpur surged more than three percent and the ringgit held gains after opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was named prime minister, ending a days-long leadership impasse after inconclusi­ve polls that had rattled Malaysia's markets.

London was flat at the open, while Paris and Frankfurt edged up.

The more risk-on environmen­t was also reflected in a further drop in the dollar against its peers, having surged for much of the year as traders bet on ever-higher US interest rates.

"Equities are revelling in the wake of the... minutes after the Fed telegraphe­d a downshift from jumbo to extra-large rate hikes," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"A commitment to moving toward restrictiv­e monetary policy remains intact, but the (policy board) is ready to slow the path toward that destinatio­n."

He added that a less aggressive Fed "should pave the runway for takeoff in Asia, fuelled by expectatio­ns of China's reopening by March next year".

Investors are keeping a close watch on China after it announced a record number of new Covid cases as authoritie­s worked to curb the spread with snap lockdowns, mass testing and travel restrictio­ns.

While officials are trying more targeted measures to contain the disease, concerns remain that they will resort to the painful city-wide shutdowns seen in Shanghai earlier this year as part of the zero-Covid strategy, which hammered the economy.

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