The Pak Banker

Asian markets fall as China reopening spurs inflation fears

- HONG KONG

Asian markets were mostly lower on Wednesday as China's move to reopen after abandoning its zero-Covid policy revived inflation fears.

China has abruptly reversed tight pandemic restrictio­ns that kept the world's second-largest economy isolated for the past three years.

On Monday, Beijing announced it was ending quarantine measures for overseas arrivals from January 8, the latest move to loosen its zeroCovid regime, after it dropped mandatory testing and lockdowns earlier this month.

China's scrapping of pandemic restrictio­ns has spurred hopes for its economic revival but also raised fears it will add to inflationa­ry pressure.

Moving to reopen even as the Asian giant battles a massive spike in Covid cases has caused jitters, with the United States and several other countries saying they may restrict travel from China and introduce mandatory PCR tests for arrivals.

"While a full China reopening could provide a much-needed and timely boost to the global economy, it may come with unwelcome ambiguous strings attached," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

"The good news is that inflation subsides as China reprises its role as a supplier of low-cost goods globally and supply chain bottleneck­s ease," he added.

"Still, the bad news is as growth accelerate­s through Q1, China's insatiable demand for raw materials and all things energy will push up prices of those commoditie­s, much to the consternat­ion of the Fed and ECB. Indeed, reopening is rekindling some inflationa­ry spirits."

Fresh data last week indicated a slowing of US inflation, but the news was not definitive and eyes will be on how the Federal Reserve moves to balance inflationa­ry concerns alongside the possibilit­y of a recession caused by increased borrowing costs.

"We may get a pivot later on next year from the Federal Reserve where they actually start cutting rates, but that's going to happen when the situation is going to become much more dire than it is now," Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak, said on Bloomberg TV.

"If we just have this slow grind lower, the Fed's going to keep interest rates at high levels even if they stop raising rates in any kind of way."

Asian markets mostly headed south, with Tokyo giving up 0.4 percent, Seoul sliding more than 2.2 percent and Shanghai down 0.3 percent. Sydney, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Taipei also retreated while Wellington and Bangkok were among the few gainers.

At 0742 GMT the rouble was 1.2% weaker against the dollar at 70.10, but still some way off the almost eightmonth low of 72.6325 struck last week.

"At the end of December, the rouble is likely to remain extremely volatile as the market will need to find a new equilibriu­m under changed trade flows and increased sanctions pressure," BCS World of Investment­s said in a note.

"This week, the rouble is expected to fluctuate in the range of 68-71 (per dollar)."

Against the euro, the rouble lost 1.1% to 74.35 . Against the yuan, it was down 1.9% at 9.95 .

The rouble remains the world's best-performing major currency against the dollar this year, supported by capital controls and reduced imports.

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