A way forward

The Punjab Assembly has finally been dissolved and the KP Assembly is the next to go. The development has set in motion the process of elections in the two provinces.

That brings a shaky coalition government at the centre, with its razor-thin majority in a truncated National Assembly, under further pressure. The options for the ruling alliance are running out. The endgame has begun.

It all started last week, with the PTI-PML-Q government winning the vote of confidence in the Punjab Assembly. It came as a shock to the PML-N, which till the last moment, was expecting some defections within the provincial government's ranks. That did not happen. The PML-N lost the game of snakes and ladders. Another setback for the party came when the wily Punjab Chief Minister Parvez Elahi dissolved the provincial assembly against all expectations.

In this situation, the PML-N has been left with no other choice but to prepare for elections in the province that are to be held within three months. Imran Khan is also planning to take the battle to Islamabad. He has hinted at his party returning to the National Assembly and forcing the prime minister to take a vote of confidence.

While another U-turn, it would be yet a shrewd move by the former prime minister, given the coalition government's vulnerabilities. Khan, belatedly, seems to have realised that abstention from the National Assembly could keep his party out of the process of forming the caretaker government for the coming general elections.

But the return will not be that smooth as the PTI legislators in the House had submitted their resignations. It is apparent that Khan's decision to go back to the Assembly is not to break the political deadlock and help draw up a mechanism for the elections but to bring down the PDM government.

Khan, belatedly, seems to have realised that abstention from the National Assembly could keep his party out of the process of forming the caretaker government for the coming general elections. But

the return will not be that smooth as the PTI legislators in the House had submitted

their resignations.

Meanwhile, with some reports of possible defections in PML-N ranks, it could be a serious challenge for the prime minister to prove his majority. The Punjab debacle certainly has had a demoralising effect on the party though the leadership has put on a brave face. Even if the prime minister manages to scrape through the confidence vote, the rulers' capacity to govern has been seriously hampered.

With two major provinces going into election mode and the entire focus on the coming provincial polls, it would make it extremely difficult for the centre to govern. It is unprecedented that elections would be taking place in only two provinces. An anomalous situation has been created that could have serious implications for the political and electoral process.

Neither side is willing to back down from their rigid position and agree on a mechanism for simultaneous elections in the provinces and the centre. While Imran Khan is adamant about bringing down the entire edifice, the ruling coalition is not willing to concede that it has already lost the game and to agree to early general elections.

With the economy in dire straits, a lame-duck administration that is unable to take the tough decisions needed will pull down the country further.

The finance minister doesn't want to discard his weird views on managing the economy. A top commercial banker recently warned of a systemic failure if urgent measures were not taken to address the current economic crisis.

The situation is becoming increasingly untenable for the beleaguered dispensation. Although PML-N leaders insist that the National Assembly would not be dissolved before the end of its term, the game is fast slipping out of its hands. The Sharifs' party has already lost huge political capital and prolonging its rule could further erode its support base in its former stronghold in Punjab.

The PDM government is presiding over the complete collapse of the economy which would have far-reaching political implications for the country and the democratic process.

This extremely bleak scenario also raises the question of whether the announcement of an election date could help stabilise the political situation.

There is no indication yet of the rival parties coming together to bring down the political temperature and enter into a serious discussion on the schedule and modalities of elections. More importantly, what will happen to the economy in the meantime?

There is a lot of speculation about a prolonged interim government of technocrats to fix the economy before the country votes. It's not the first time such an idea was floated.

We have heard such suggestions in the past too. It may sound attractive to many who look for a solution to our myriad political and economic problems outside the political system.