Fitch cuts China’s ratings outlook on growth risks
Fitch cut its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models. The outlook downgrade follows a similar move by Moody’s in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-Covid recovery in the world’s second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.
“Fitch’s outlook revision reflects the more challenging situation in China’s public finance regarding the double whammy of decelerating growth and more debt,” said Gary Ng, Natixis Asia-Pacific senior economist.
“This does not mean that China will default any time soon, but it is possible to see credit polarisation in some LGFVs (local government financing vehicles), especially as provincial governments see weaker fiscal health.”
Fitch expects China’s explicit central and local government debt to rise to 61.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 56.1pc in 2023, a clear deterioration from 38.5pc in 2019.
A protracted property downturn has weighed heavily on debt-laden local governments as their revenues from land development plunged, rendering debt levels in many cities unsustainable.
At the same time, the rating agency expects China’s general government deficit, which covers infrastructure and other official fiscal activity outside the headline budget, to rise to 7.1pc of GDP in 2024 from 5.8pc in 2023, the highest since 8.6pc in 2020 when Beijing’s strict Covid curbs weighed heavily on the economy.
While it lowered its ratings to a negative outlook from “stable”, indicating a downgrade is possible over the medium term, Fitch affirmed China’s issuer default rating at ‘A+’, its third-highest category. S&P, the other major global rating agency, also rates China A+, the equivalent of
Moody’s current A1 rating.
Fitch forecast China’s economic growth would slow to 4.5pc in 2024 from 5.2pc last year, while the International Monetary Fund expects China’s GDP to grow 4.6pc this year.
The ratings warning comes despite tentative signs China’s economy is finding its footing.
Factory output and retail sales topped forecasts in January-February, following better-than-expected exports and consumer inflation indicators.
Those data points have shored up Beijing’s hopes that it can hit what analysts have described as an ambitious GDP growth target of around 5.0pc for 2024.
“The outlook revision reflects increasing risks to China’s public finance outlook as the country contends with more uncertain economic prospects amid a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,” Fitch said.
“Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective,” it said. “Contingent liability risks may also be rising, as lower nominal growth exacerbates challenges to managing high economy-wide leverage.”
China plans to run a budget deficit of 3pc of economic output, down from a revised 3.8pc last year. Crucially, it plans to issue 1 trillion yuan ($138.30 billion) in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, which are not included in the budget. The special bond issuance quota for local governments was set at 3.9tr yuan, versus 3.8tr yuan in 2023.
China’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record of 287.8pc in 2023, 13.5 percentage points higher than a year earlier, according to a report by the National Institution for Finance and Development (FIND) in January.
The planned treasury bond issuance signals Beijing’s willingness to shoulder a higher share of the burden of meeting growth targets, as local governments struggle to cope with slower fiscal revenues and depressed land sales.