West cannot let Putin open a second front in Europe
Thurday marks Nato’s 75th anniversary, and Vladimir Putin’s grand strategic vision remains resolute: its dissolution. Emboldened by recent advances in Ukraine, the direct peril to Nato affiliates such as Poland and the Baltic States remains high.
Yet they are not alone. The Balkans, oft-neglected, are also a ripe prospect for Russia’s aspirations, and are becoming increasingly febrile and dangerous. Britain and its allies neglected the Balkans at their peril over a century ago. We cannot afford to make the same mistake again.
The US ambassador to Nato took the unusual step of warning this week that Russia is using disinformation, cyberattacks, and other nefarious tactics to “destabilise” the Western Balkans.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a case in point. Three decades after war ravaged that country, Serbia, backed by its friends in Moscow, is are reigniting ethnic tensions, jeopardising European security. Europe and the US need to put the fire out before it engulfs the region.
Bosnia and Herzegovina comprises two autonomous entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska. The former is populated chiefly by Bosniak Muslims and Croats, while and Serbs dominated Republika Srpska, which is friendly with nearby Serbia.
These ethnic divisions produced a bloody war in 1992-1995 that left more than 100,000 people dead and millions homeless.
The conflict ended only after Nato intervention that led to a USbrokered a peace deal, whose implementation is overseen by a high representative appointed by an international council.
An EU peacekeeping force, EUFOR, ensures order under Operation ALTHEA.
Today, the country remains deeply divided. Republika Srpska’s President Milorad Dodik, an ally of Russia and Serbia, has pushed it to the brink of war by
threatening to secede. In September, Dodik barred High Representative Christian Schmidt from attending official meetings at the presidential headquarters.
Moscow and deliberately
Belgrade are stoking these divisions.
On March 5, as such, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned of an increased risk of inter-ethnic violence in the Western Balkans. The warning highlighted Dodik’s “provocative steps to neutralise international oversight in Bosnia and secure de-facto secession for his Republika Srpska.” This “could prompt leaders of the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) population to bolster their own capacity to protect their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.”
The situation worsened last month after Schmidt imposed a set of changes to the country’s election law to guarantee free and fair elections. Dodik immediately rejected Schmidt’s “integrity package” and again threatened to secede. Serbian President Aleksandar Vui joined in by posting a cryptic message on Instagram, stating that “difficult days are ahead for Serbia” due to “direct threats to the vital interests of both Serbia and Republika
Srpska.” He added: “The battle will be tough, the toughest ever. We will fight. Serbia will win.”
In January, most concerningly for our purposes, Dodik met Vladimir Putin and reaffirmed the entity’s refusal to join Western sanctions against Moscow over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In March, Dodik said, “the Serbian people will always be on the side of the Russians.”
Is it any wonder, therefore, that Russia is fanning the flames, using information operations to push for “RSEXIT” (hinting at the secession of Republika Srpska)? In December, Putin even suggested it would be possible to start transmitting Russianstate-owned media RT to Bosnia.
By sowing chaos in the Balkans, Putin aims to strengthen Moscow’s regional influence, distract Europe from supporting Ukraine, and give Putin leverage over Western powers who do not want the violence to escalate. For Vui, meddling in Bosnia and Herzegovina offers helps strengthen his grip on power in Serbia.