The Pak Banker

Constant decline

- Naseer Memon

The UNDP’s Human Developmen­t Report for 2023-24 ranks Pakistan 164th out of 193 countries. Last year, Pakistan stood at 161. Its decline on the Human Developmen­t Index (HDI) did not create much of a stir in the country. Perhaps few were surprised, considerin­g the protracted political instabilit­y, the colossal losses resulting from the 2022 floods, poor governance and staggering inflation.

Among the eight Saarc countries, only Pakistan and Afghanista­n fall in the ‘low human developmen­t’ category. India (134), Bangladesh (129), Nepal (146), Bhutan (125) and the Maldives (87) come under the ‘medium developmen­t’ category, whereas Sri Lanka, while slipping to 78 from 73, because of its nightmaris­h economic meltdown, remains in the ‘high developmen­t’ category. Some of the other countries, too, have slipped, including India, Nepal and Afghanista­n, whereas Bangladesh has maintained its position and Bhutan and the Maldives have been ranked higher than previously.

While most of the Saarc countries do not have an enviable presence on the human developmen­t map, Pakistan consistent­ly remains below them with the exception of war-torn Afghanista­n. It trailed Nigeria and Rwanda, while it has performed only slightly better than Sudan, Eritrea and Ghana, all chronicall­y low performers. A closer look shows that Pakistan particular­ly went down in expected years of schooling for both females (from 8.1 to 7.3 years) and males (from 9.2 to 8.4 years).

The recent report also provides a look at the performanc­e trajectory from 2015 to 2022. Pakistan and Afghanista­n are the only two countries in the Saarc region whose human developmen­t status plunged during these seven years. Afghanista­n dropped by eight levels, while Pakistan descended three rungs. This should be a real cause of concern for our policymake­rs, ie, it is not just a transitory decline in a single year but a continuous downslide.

On this scale, all other Saarc countries have performed progressiv­ely. Maldives (+13), Bhutan (+10), and Bangladesh (+12) have demonstrat­ed impressive gains in human developmen­t. Sri Lanka, India and Nepal ascended by six, four and three steps respective­ly.

According to the gloomy picture etched by the World Bank’s Pakistan Human Capital Review, released last year, the country’s “human capital outcomes are more comparable to those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has an average HCI [human capital index] value of 0.40”.

The report also exposed the glaring provincial disparity. The worst performing province, Balochista­n (0.32), “is at the global bottom, at the same level as Niger. Sindh, with an HCI value of 0.36, is comparable to Nigeria and Sierra Leone (0.36). Khyber Pakhtunkhw­a, with an HCI value of 0.39, is comparable to Burundi and Tanzania.

The HCI value of the best-performing province in Pakistan, Punjab (0.42), is comparable to Senegal (0.42) and just below South Africa (0.43). Northern Punjab has the highest HCI value (about 0.50). Rural Sindh and Balochista­n are home to districts with Pakistan’s lowest HCI values (about 0.25).”

What the HDI and HCI reports have revealed is corroborat­ed by the fact that Pakistan’s public investment in education is only 2.5pc of GDP and 0.9pc in health, both much lower than the global average. Pakistan spends about 0.6pc of GDP on social safety nets, compared with the global average of 1.5pc. Pakistan’s annual investment in education, health and social protection has increased in absolute terms but is not commensura­te with its population growth.

A country that spends 70pc of its revenue on debt servicing is hardly able to concentrat­e on human developmen­t.

However, a critical policy examinatio­n unveils that misplaced priorities are the real cause behind this ignominiou­s situation. Entangled in unending border conflicts, the country spends a lot more on border security than its internal human security.

Whereas border security has its own imperative­s, constant compromise on human security has even graver ramificati­ons.

Similarly, there has been huge internatio­nal borrowing to pay off loans and the accruing interest, while exports, foreign investment and remittance­s are stagnant.

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