The big test ahead

Pakistan finds itself in the midst of a delicate balancing act with regard to its relationships with Iran and Saudi Arabia. This became evident recently when, at the same time that it secured a $2 billion deposit from Saudi Arabia, which will boost total Saudi deposits in the State Bank to $5bn, Pakistan banned the Iranian-backed Zainebiyoun Brigade.

Despite this move, President Asif Ali Zardari reassured his Iranian counterpart of Pakistan’s commitment to cooperation in areas of mutual interest, including security. These developments highlight Pakistan’s growing dependence on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states due to evolving regional security concerns and persistent economic challenges. This increased reliance, however, may come with a few strings attached.

Tensions are soaring in the Middle East as the IsraelHamas conflict threatens to escalate in the larger region. The US has restricted staff travel in Israel, fearing Iranian retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus. In this context, clipping the wings of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its principal subsidiary, the Quds Force, has become essential for the US, Israel, and its allies in the Gulf.

The Quds Force employs all semi-conventional warfare tactics, including sophisticated techniques of guerrilla warfare and militancy. It operates through its regional proxies, the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi, the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade, the Pakistani Zainebiyoun, and Yemen’s Houthis.

The Zainebiyoun Brigade is believed to have been involved in supplying weapons to the IRGC in the Middle East. Last month, reports emerged of alleged Zainebiyoun members of Pakistani origin being apprehended in international waters for carrying weapons to be given to the IRGC in the Middle East. In another incident, the death of a Pakistan-origin commander in Syria affiliated with the group paved the way for Pakistan to ban it.

Pakistani law-enforcement agencies are believed to have sufficient proof of the Zainebiyoun Brigade’s involvement in sectarian violence in the country and recruitment for the Iraq and Syria conflict, but the government had not acted earlier because of circumstances linked to the alleged presence of Baloch insurgents on Iranian soil. The loyalty of its members, who prioritise ideological affiliations over national ties, also remains a major challenge for security institutions.

The involvement of a section of Shia youth in transnational political activism and militancy goes back to before the 1979 revolution, with figures such as Arif al-Husayni playing key roles. The Brigade has acknowledged ties with the Quds Force since around the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan, and its formation was announced in 2014 during the conflict in Syria. It has recently pledged its readiness to follow orders from the IRGC.