Indian bond yields seen steady ahead of debt buyback

Indian government bond yields are expected to be little changed in early trading on Thursday, as traders await the government’s planned buyback of securities amid a lack of fresh cues.

The benchmark 10-year yield is likely to move in a 7.10 percent-7.15 percent range, following its previous close of 7.1343 percent, a trader with a private bank said.

“The broader sentiment has remained positive since the announcement of bond buyback so that should continue to keep the bond yields supported along with lower US peers,” the trader added.

The Reserve Bank of India will buy back bonds worth up to 400 billion rupees ($4.79 billion) on Thursday, which will infuse liquidity in the banking system that has been in deficit over the last few weeks.

“This buyback announcement is just to reduce the government surplus and ease banking sector liquidity,” said Puneet Pal, Head-Fixed Income, PGIM India Mutual Fund.

“This means that while the government borrowings continue the government spending will be low, resulting in higher government surplus and tighter banking liquidity.”

Pal sees the RBI’s financial year 2024 dividend to the government, expected to be in the vicinity of 850 billion rupees, to further augment the banking sector liquidity.

The 10-year US yield has stayed around 4.50 percent, and traders are pricing in 66 percent chance the Federal Reserve will pivot in September with at least a 25 basis point cut at that meeting, according to LSEG’s rate probability app. For the last few weeks, the futures market had factored in just one cut amid persistently elevated inflation and strong economic data.