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ministration’s foreign policy on Asia p administration would likely still be enting a threat to US interests.
buildup of the US Navy Fleet from 274 to 350 ships; and
6) The US will guarantee the liberal order in Asia but will ask Japan and South Korea to contribute their fair share to the cost of sustaining US presence in their countries.
This vision of “Peace Through Strength” integrates some of the Obama administration’s assumptions, such as China’s assertiveness, the importance of maintaining the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and the role of the US in buttressing the liberal order in Asia.
However, it rejects the TPP and imposes greater financial responsibility allies hosting US forces.
The Trump advisers faulted Obama’s rebalance for “talking loudly but carrying a small stick, one that had led to more, not less, aggression and instability in the region.” Interestingly, while supporting a buildup of naval power, the essay is silent on the need for American participation in East Asian multilateral institutions. Instead, it advocates a rebalancing based on sheer naval power and unmitigated unilateralism.
This new thrust will shift US policy to constrainment based on a clear-cut deterrence strategy. A Navy buildup would convey that the US is prepared to confront a peer competitor ( or competitors). The result would be an arms race to achieve preponderance over China and to show American resolve to constrain China. This will put China in a classic security dilemma.
Recently, the Chinese have been rattled by Trump’s phone call with the president of Taiwan, Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson’s statements implying a blockade of Chinese artificial islands in the South China Seas, and by Trump’s inaugural speech that blamed trade practices for failing to put “America first.” China expects Trump to bring American–owned factories in its territory back to the US and to use ties with Taipei as a “bargaining chip” to put trade pressure on Beijing. The Chinese state-run national tabloid, the Global Times, warned that Trump’s inaugural speech indicated that the US and China would eventually enter a global trade war.
It is too early to say whether “Peace through Strength” will be the basic tenet of the new Asia policy. Yet, any new Asia policy under the Trump administration would likely still be guided by America’s historic goals: promoting free trade and preventing the ambition of a regional power that could threaten US interests in the region.
However, as Arizona State University professor Sheldon Simon warns, “…Mr. Trump speaks of his ability to make deals. This suggests that his approach to international politics will be transactional rather than values-based […] If this modus operandi is accurate, the world will experience a very different American profile than the one that prevailed over the past eight years.” n