Marawi rehab could stretch beyond 2022
LESS THAN A WEEK before Marawi City hogged the headlines, there was a news item that did not quite make it to many broadsheets and broadcasts: the opening of a Negosyo Center in the city.
It was the first such facility in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao ( ARMM) — the smallest contributor to the national economy with a gross regional domestic product accounting for just 0.625% of total output last year — that was overshadowed by the fact that it was the 508th since the first center — meant to assist and boost micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) — was launched in November 2014 in Cagayan de Oro, a Northern Mindanao city that is just a little over 100 kilometers northeast of Marawi.
As the battle in Marawi that broke out on May 23 raged to its third week, the Negosyo Center opening would become part of news — albeit not in terms of the economy nor its relevance to MSMEs. Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” A. Aquino IV — author of Republic Act No. 10644, or the Go Negosyo Act, that is the basis for the establishment of the centers and who was present during the Marawi launch less than a week before hostilities began — was all but clearly linked by Justice Secretary Vitaliano N. Aquirre to the ongoing Marawi crisis.
It has yet to be verified whether the Marawi Negosyo Center office lay among the ruins left behind by fighting between government forces and militants seeking recognition of the Islamic State.
But those manning the center will have work cut out for them when the city starts rebuilding.
And an initial assessment estimates Marawi’s rehabilitation will extend beyond the term of President Rodrigo R. Duterte, who will step down at noon of end-June 2022.
P200-M LOSSES, BUT NOT JUST REHAB
Antonio D. Uy, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s vicepresident for Mindanao, said MSMEs in Marawi and surrounding areas affected by the siege will need help to get back on their feet.
“As to estimated losses to MSME sector, we pegged it at about P200 million to date,” Mr. Uy said in an e-mail last week.
A comprehensive assessment of the overall cost to infrastructure and the local economy will have to wait until guns fall silent and the dust settles, but the ARMM government held on June 6 an initial meeting on how it will go about evaluating what has been destroyed, so that it could start drafting the rehabilitation plan.
A three-phased recovery and rehabilitation plan is on the drawing board, being drafted by the regional government with representatives of the city and the province of Lanao del Sur, and assisted by the World Bank.
The first phase will consist of immediate work needed in the first year of recovery, the second phase will stretch over six years and the third phase will involve the long- term development of Marawi, the capital and center of trade in Lanao del Sur, which has 39 other municipalities and a population of about 1.04 million, according to the 2015 census.
“As we continue to deliver relief to those affected by this crisis, we also need to plan and to prepare to build the future that the people of Marawi are holding on to,” ARMM Regional Governor Mujiv S. Hataman said.
On Saturday, Malacañang announced that a P10-billion fund is being readied for the rehabilitation program.
The government’s economic managers, local and foreign analysts, and business leaders share the view that the Marawi crisis and the martial law declaration now in effect throughout Mindanao will not affect the country’s overall growth prospects, provided the fighting stops soon and definitively.
Mindanao leaders have a similar positive long-term view, though there are immediate repercussions, particularly on tourism.
“It is not the declaration of martial law per se but the failure to contain and stop the terror, violence and lawlessness that will adversely affect the economy of Mindanao and business in general. If terror, violence and lawlessness are not promptly stopped, business will suffer and investor confidence in Mindanao will be eroded, and it will take a long time… to recover,” Raul Josefino F. Miguel, president of the General Santos City Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in a separate interview, quoting from the chamber’s position paper.
“We would be hypocrites denying that some disruptions in positive perceptions exists,” said Mr. Uy.
“But then again, we observed these are few and temporary.”
Davao City’s tourism industry, for example, has estimated its losses at about P20 million so far in terms of canceled accommodations and foregone tourism revenues as a result of the martial law declaration.
“The tourism industry works on perception, so such news (imposition of martial law) will really lead to hesitation,” said City Tourism Officer GeneRose Tecson in an interview, noting that similar cancellations happened following the Sept. 2, 2016 night market bombing in the city.
“But there were many rebookings by October and November,” she said, adding that the city government is banking on its biggest annual festival, the Kadayawan, in August to help hasten recovery.
The city government has also asked the Department of Tourism and other national government agencies to help in terms of promotion by pushing through with scheduled or planned conferences, Ms. Tecson added.
The World Food Expo Mindanao, the largest annual food and beverage show on the southern island, has already been moved from June 15-17, to Aug. 29- 31 in the wake of the imposition of martial law.
On the other hand, the 4th Davao Investment Conference (ICon) will proceed as scheduled on July 21-22, the first time that the annual event is expected to see foreign investors participate, according to the Davao City Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (DCCCII).
Ronald C. Go, DCCCII president, said inquiries and notifications from various trade missions — including Indonesia, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Pakistan — indicate an interest mostly in infrastructure development and manufacturing. “There were three groups that have visited our office so far since January and most of the members of these groups were interested in investing in these two sectors,” said Mr. Go.
The Board of Investments ( BoI) reported Friday that nationwide investment pledges in the first five months increased to P174.5 billion from P137.3 billion a year ago. While three regions in the northern island of Luzon, including the capital Metro Manila, cornered about 83% of the total, Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said in the BoI statement that “investment prospects in Mindanao remain rosy given the significant investment projects,” particularly in three Mindanao regions — P3.18 billion in Davao, P1.38 billion in Northern Mindanao and P1.35 billion in Caraga.
Datu Hj. Abul Khayr D. Alonto, chairman of the Mindanao Development Authority, said: “We cannot let terror, lawlessness, and violence shatter what we have built for Mindanao all these years.”
When the gunfire — which government data show has so far claimed the lives of 53 soldiers and at least 20 civilians, and displaced almost 240,000 people, including more than 22,000 students — subsides and the dust settles in Marawi, the bigger and long- drawn battle against economic and social exclusion still needs to be fought and won.
“Conflict in Mindanao, we know, is rooted in social injustice. Poverty in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao is the highest in the country. Educational delivery is worst in the country… This is the heart of the serious conflict in Mindanao that we must address. Before it ever explodes in violence like in Marawi, it brews in the frustration and pain of social exclusion,” said Jesuit priest Antonio F. Moreno, current provincial superior of the religious order who previously served as president of the Ateneo de Zamboanga.
While the unfolding events in Marawi are being portrayed as a pocket-sized crisis that the government aims to end today, when the country celebrates its 119th Independence Day, the heads of the Jesuit-run Ateneo school system, which has three of its five universities in Mindanao, pointed out the symbolic significance of the city.
In a joint statement issued on May 29, they said: “Marawi, an old and storied city, has almost 400 years of history. It is Mindanao’s Kilometer 0: the starting point for all other baseline measurements on the island.”