FOCUS: The Power Crisis First, gov’t must admit the power crisis is real

been victimized by the region’s outages will attest. The situation in the South may, in fact, be more worrisome as the bulk of its energy requirements are served by hydroelectric plants, made practically inutile by the drought.

“The present power crisis was brought about by inadequate reserved generating capacity, which left very little margin for required and adequate preventive maintenance on existing old power plants,” said Dr. Francisco L. Viray, holder of Napocor Professor of Power I, and concurrently University of the Philippines Engineering dean and executive director of the National Engineering Center.

In his recent professorial chair lecture on “The Dimensions of the Power Crisis,” Dr. Viray offered this nugget on the power situation: much of the problem is rooted in Government’s earlier refusal to admit to a power supply shortage.

Since 1985, the Napocor has stood by its difficult decision of keeping plants running without the prescribed upkeep to prevent daily power outages. The result: a vicious cycle of-plummeting reliability, as plant capability deteriorates, and reserved generating capacity drops even further.

The inadequate reserve situation also prevented Napocor from conserving water in the hydroelectric plants even during drought conditions, Dr. Viray said. When an oil-, coal-fired or geothermal unit required emergency maintenance, hydroelectric plants were used to take up the slack, “even if, from the operational point of view, there is not enough water to replace such capability.”

Aside from creating “the false impression that there is sufficient supply,” Napocor’s actions drew water levels in reservoirs below the rule curve, replenishable levels based on historical inflows. Dr. Viray noted that as of June 26, 1992, water levels in the Angat Dam is still 20.55 meters below its rule curve, Binga’s water level is also below by 1.76m, Pantabangan’s, by 21.62m, and Magat’s, by 8.95m.

NARROWED OPTIONS

Its options narrowing, the Napocor is now scrambling to do what it should have done in the first place — build large-baseload geothermal or coal-fired power plants. These are, however, scheduled to come on stream in the medium term, at best. Barring difficulties with social and environmental groups, construction is expected to take a couple of years.

Since citizens are brownoutweary and eager to plug power gaps ASAP, there is growing popularity of another quick-fix: putting up more gas turbines. Yet are these still feasible? Not anymore, said the engineering dean. “In our 1987 study, the only viable solution then was ( to put up) gas turbines. However, the study cautioned about overbuilding beyond 10% of peak demand,” he said.

For while gas turbines have low initial costs and a short installation time, they are expensive to maintain, and have a reduced twoyear life span with intensive use. As such, they should ideally account for about 10% of peak demand. At present, 16% of peak demand is already serviced by gas turbines. An overdependence on these units, Dr. Viray cautioned, may only “compound the problem in the future.”

BEST SOLUTION

For Dr. Viray, the best solution to both ease the burden on Napocor in the short term, and to spare citizens from incessant power outages, is both “immediate but retrogressive” — on-site generation.

Independent mini-plants for major industrial manufacturers, large government and commercial establishments, he said, are “the only immediate sensical solutions available — whether one likes it or not.”

This appears to be the only recourse to ease Napocor’s load until the power situation stabilizes, sometime “in late 1995 or early 1996,” Dr. Viray noted. He urged Government to encourage this by providing incentives for the construction of bunker-fed diesel engine-generator sets for existing, and soon- to- be- built large establishments and industries.

This results in more reliable power supply for large manufacturing firms, “and may even result in cheaper electricity,” he said.

OBSTACLE

The biggest obstacle to such an approach? “Some industrial plants and commercial buildings are hesitant to put up their own generation units because Government does not want to admit there is, indeed, a power crisis. Until recently, it has always given the public the false impression that there is sufficient supply, that solutions to blackouts are just around the corner or are already in place,” Dr. Viray said.

This, Dr. Viray noted, despite the knowledge that Napocor’s Power Development Program will be playing catch-up with demand for some time yet. Come next summer, the Napocor will bring in 500 megawatts (MW) of base load plant capacity in the Luzon Grid, and 100 MW in the Mindanao Grid. Another 275 MW for Luzon and 200 MW for Mindanao will come on stream at end-1993. All these additions, however, will barely fill the expected demand for 1994.

ADMISSION

He thus called on Napocor to officially admit the blatantly obvious. “Tell the truth that there is a power crisis, (that) reserved generating capacity is inadequate, and longterm and permanent solutions will only be in place, at the earliest, four years from now,” he said.

After such a pronouncement, business can take advantage of mechanisms already in place, such as the existing tax exemption on diesel unit imports. Dr. Viray also suggested allowing private industries access to financing, like the overseas development assistance (ODA) funds.

When all these are in place, all Government must do is assure the private sector of an adequate supply of diesel or fuel oil. Once the power situation is stabilized, and permanent solutions are in place, Government can assume the cost of maintaining and owning these units, and use them as standby power sources. “This on-site generation must be turned over or bought by Napocor once the power situation becomes more stable,” he recommended. “Napocor can use it for peak shaving in the Luzon Grid, and avoid the construction of too many combined-cycle plants, or use it for the small islands.”

CAUTION

He did, however, offer a word of caution: “The immediate solution must not be allowed to proliferate, like what has been done with gas turbines, because it increases our dependence on oil and makes the country more susceptible to an oil crisis, which is beyond our control.”

Hand in hand with this thrust must be the major rehabilitation of existing power plants, as “increasing their capability decreases the requirement for new base load plants,” Dr. Viray noted.

In the worst case, the engineering dean offered another, albeit controversial, recourse: “Decelerate rural electrification for the next two years to dampen growth,” he stated, “especially in areas where the use of electricity for productive activities cannot be guaranteed.” Setting up industries in rural areas may once again be encouraged once the power situation normalizes, and the system’s capability is more sound.

Dr. Viray’s bottom line: Let the public make educated decisions. They can only do so if they are made fully aware of just how deep a hole everyone is in.