Looking up in 2010
STILL CONSERVATIVE
“We’re beginning to see the infrastructure sector lead growth because of rehabilitation after the typhoons,” Mr. Dee said.
Already, the automotive industry had seen a dramatic turn- around in sales after the storms as buyers sought to replace waterlogged cars.
Sales reached 132,444 vehicles last year, up 6.4% from 2008 — beating a muted 2.3% industry forecast.
Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. President Elizabeth H. Lee said in statement last Jan. 8 that her group was keeping its 4% forecast for this year.
The launch of new models, stronger remittance flows from overseas workers, aggressive car loan promotions will likewise drive 2010 sales, Ms. Lee said.
Manufacturers of construction materials also expect to share in the building frenzy following the storms.
“Capacity [ utilization of cement plants] might hit 60% [in 2010] versus 57% in 2009 and 55% in 2008,” Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines President Ernesto M. Ordoñez said in a telephone interview.
Sales projections, however, are conservatively parked at 3% for early 2010 versus a faster 5% for 2009 as prospects for the period following the elections remain hazy, Mr. Ordoñez said.
Industry sales of steel sheets, in contrast, will grow at a faster pace of 5%-8% versus a flattening in 2009, Union Galvasteel Corp. President Arthur M. Florendo said in an email.
Mr. Florendo, who also sits as director of the Filipino Galvanizers Institute, clarified however that the estimates are based more on the experience of his firm.
Tile manufactures, for their part, expect to just match 2009 sales due to the continued entry of competing imports, Ceramic Tile Manufacturers’ Association President Edison Co Seteng said in a telephone interview.
Among these manufacturing groups, sentiments on employment prospects were generally restrained.
Prospects of hiring in steel mills, tile factories, and car assembly lines will depend on how the local industry will fare in the face of increased competition brought on by lower import tariffs starting this month, the industry group leaders said.
“For domestic steel manufacturers, hiring [may] decline because they will be encouraged to import finished products due to tariff reduction,” Mr. Florendo said.
“[ But] world prices are continuously increasing and this will offset the advantages under trade agreements,” he said.
Ms. Lee, for her part, said hiring among car manufacturers will depend on sales of locally made units and government’s faithfulness to policies favoring Philippine-made models in its procurement.
Groups representing the service sector were more upbeat: BPO companies expect hiring needs to deepen while those in the banking, telecommunication and real estate sector will likely offer “better quality” jobs, Messrs. Sañez and Lim said.
“Hiring is still strong. Recruitment is now for a more diversified talent base. We need experts for accounting, finance, human resources and software programming,” Mr. Sañez said.
“The one with the biggest potential is services,” Mr. Lim said.
“The quality of employment was lower in 2009 — people took on part- time jobs,” he noted.
“In 2010, quality of employment will improve.”