Diesel’s disgrace brings hybrids-for-all in race to electrify

FRANKFURT — Car makers squeezed between carbon emissions cuts and falling sales of fuel-efficient diesels have used the Frankfurt auto show to spotlight a future generation of electric cars that will largely come too late to help them out of their bind.

But elsewhere at the show, suppliers like Valeo and Delphi are lifting the lid on a quicker fix: affordable 48-volt hybrids.

These “mild” hybrids, which add some electric power to existing petrol models without a costly redesign, are now being deployed without fanfare by brands from Volkswagen ( VW) to Volvo.

It is diesel’s disgrace and decline, executives and analysts say, that has finally set the stage for mass electrification. While diesel pollution problems became notorious with the VW test-cheating scandal, the subsequent shift to petrol is bloating carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions, making the next round of European Union goals harder to meet.

“Our view is that 48 volts on a gasoline engine is an alternative to diesel,” said Karin Thorn, vicepresident for vehicle propulsion at Volvo. “If and when the diesel market is dropping, something else needs to take its place.”

Diesels are stalling already, in fact — and weaker secondhand values suggest the slump can only accelerate.

An attention-grabbing pledge by the Swedish car maker to “electrify” its entire range by 2019, initially hailed as a bold step, now looks more like an industry-wide reality.

PSA Group, which had previously seen no need for 48V hybrids, now plans to introduce them “across- the- board” in response to diesel’s faster-thanexpected decline, the Peugeot maker’s programs chief Patrice Lucas told Reuters.

By quadrupling the 12-volt standard in conventional car electrics and allowing a beefed up starter motor to feed extra power to the drivetrain, complementing the combustion engine, carmakers can transform petrol cars into mild hybrids without redesigning the vehicle’s architecture and factory tooling.

ENABLING TECHNOLOGY

The motor delivers a noticeable torque boost and recovers braking energy to recharge a battery — smaller and cheaper than those required by electric cars or “full” hybrids such as Toyota’s 7203.T Prius, which typically run at 100-300 volts. Total manufacturing cost comes in €500€1,000 ($600-$1,200) below an equivalent diesel.

“It’s the most interesting enabling technology and will comfortably replace diesel,” said Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst. “It can do the job and it’s already cheaper — you don’t have to be an early adopter to buy one.”

By 2020, the brokerage expects 48V cars to outpace European sales of full hybrids, including plug- ins that can be recharged with a cable and driven in electric-only mode. By 2025, it predicts, they will equip 55% of all cars sold.

The technology is surfacing first in luxury cars such as the Mercedes S-Class on show at the Frankfurt event — which runs until Sunday — before trickling down to the mass market, chiefly in Europe and China.

Volkswagen’s next Golf, a benchmark in compact cars, will arrive with 48V electrics in 2019, and other models will follow, development chief Frank Welsch told Reuters.

“The technology has a lot of potential and will make hybrids more affordable for the masses,” Mr. Welsch said. Renault, Japanese affiliate Nissan and Hyundai are among other mass car manufacturers with 48V in the pipeline.

In 2021, the key EU emissions goal drops to 95 grams of CO per kilometer from its current 130 grams — a challenge exacerbated by the replacement of standard lab tests with on-theroad “real driving emissions” measurements.

DIESEL HEADACHE

Despite incentives, neither battery technology nor charging infrastructure is ready for the mass electric-car uptake required to put a dent in average emissions by then.

The headache is compounded by the decline of diesels, which emit 15%- 20% less CO than petrol alternatives. Fortunately, 48V hybrids deliver savings in the same bracket.

Their simplicity also lets car makers adjust their fleet emissions on shorter lead times than typically required to redevelop a drivetrain, which may help to avoid stiff EU fines of €95 per excess gram of CO , per vehicle sold.

Among suppliers, Valeo stands to benefit most with a 40% share of mild- hybrid orders, Citi analysts predict. Continental and Delphi are also well positioned.

Paris- based Valeo expects some car makers to effect more abrupt U-turns than PSA’s — in some cases installing 48V systems without waiting for model facelifts. Innovation director Guillaume Devauchelle declined to name names.

“These solutions will become market standards,” Devauchelle said, adding that tougher rules on nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution from diesels would deepen their cost disadvantage. —