China demand, signs Iran supply curbed buoy oil

NEW YORK — Oil prices gained more than one percent on Friday, ending a run of weekly declines on signs that Iran sanctions may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s appetite for US crude.

Brent crude oil settled up $1.09 a barrel, or 1.5%, at $75.82 a barrel. US crude was up 89 cents, or 1.3%, at $68.72. US crude rose more than four percent on the week, after seven consecutive declines, and Brent rose 5.3% after three weeks of falling prices.

“Both crude markers are on track to end a steady run of weekly declines. This is largely due to a tightening fundamental outlook on the back of looming Iranian supply shortages,” said Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

Concerns that an escalating trade war between China and the US could slow economic growth and weigh on crude purchases eased slightly after sources told Reuters that China’s Unipec will resume purchases of US crude oil in October, after a two-month halt due to the fight.

Worries that Mexico’s incoming administration would not strike a bilateral agreement over the North American Free Trade Agreement with the US also weighed on the market, traders said.

A dispute over opening up the oil and gas sector is weighing on the talks, Bloomberg reported, citing two people familiar with negotiations.

At the same time, concerns about global crude supply intensified with signs that US sanctions on Iran are curbing shipments.

The US government reimposed sanctions on Iran this month after withdrawing from a 2015 international nuclear deal, which Washington saw as inadequate for curbing Tehran’s activities in the Middle East and denying it the means to make an atomic bomb. Tehran says it has no ambitions to make such a weapon.

Iran is the third-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplying around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and condensate to markets this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global consumption.

“Third-party reports indicate that Iranian tanker loadings are already down by around 700,000 bpd in the first half of August relative to July, which if it holds will exceed most expectations,” US investment bank Jefferies said on Friday.

“We expect that by Q4 the market will be dealing with either undersupply, dwindling spare capacity — or both.”

Energy consultancy FGE says it expects Iran’s crude and condensate exports to drop below 1 million bpd by mid-2019.

A key index of the dollar versus a basket of other currencies fell on Friday, boosting the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. —