Try to remember the Septembers of 1972 and 2009

It rained every day from September 1 to 19, 1972, placing Metro Manila and Central Luzon under water. Hundreds of lives were lost and crops worth millions were destroyed. The impact of the devastation on the economy wrought havoc on the already beleaguered Ferdinand Marcos presidency.

Marcos’s second term was to expire the following year and he was barred by the 1935 Constitution from seeking another reelection. The opposition Liberal Party was expected to choose Senator Ninoy Aquino as its standardbearer in the elections scheduled the following year, with Senator Gerry Roxas as vice-presidential candidate. The surveys at the time forecast an Aquino-Roxas victory in the elections of 1973.

But Marcos was maneuvering to stay in power. He cajoled, pressured, intimidated, and/or bribed delegates to the Constitutional Convention then ongoing to promulgate a new constitution that would enable him to run again.

The destruction of crops had driven prices of commodities by about 25%, giving Marcos a reason to hint that the declaration of a state of emergency was necessary. He was also calling attention to the supposed increasing number of incidents of violence perpetrated by communist elements, to add credibility to his contention that emergency powers be given him.

On September 21, a Thursday, anti-Marcos organizations held a rally at Plaza Miranda to denounce Marcos’s apparent plan to impose martial law. In the afternoon of September 22, at the invitation of the students of the Asian Institute of Management, Ninoy Aquino shared with them his vision of the Philippines after Marcos.

Later that afternoon, Defense Secretary Juan Ponce Enrile’s Ford sedan was riddled with bullets while on the way to his house. In the first hour of September 23, martial law was imposed all over the country.

Fast forward to September 2009. It rained from September 1 to 22, flooding most of Metro Manila and Central Luzon. More than a hundred lives were lost and crops worth millions destroyed. The after-effect of the devastation on the economy placed the embattled Gloria Arroyo presidency in dire financial bind and put the highly criticized president in a desperate situation. Her numerous fabulous junkets had drawn heavily from the Emergency Fund and Contingency Fund. There was not much left in those coffers for relief goods for the victims of the great flood.

Arroyo’s term was to end on June 30, 2010. She was barred by the Constitution from running for reelection. The opposition Liberal Party had endorsed the candidacy of Senator Noynoy Aquino for president and Senator Roxas for vice-president. The surveys by late September showed that Noynoy had surged ahead in the presidential derby.

But Arroyo persisted in maneuvering to stay in power. Her minions in the House of Ill Repute resorted to all kinds of schemes to amend the Constitution so that she would be able to run again for president or to emerge as Prime Minister in a parliamentary form of government. She was confident that her scheme would be voted favorably by her many minions in the proposed constituent assembly.

The Mindanao conflict was escalating. Reports from military intelligence units said that