Inflation,

“Reduced business and economic activities due to lockdowns locally and in many countries around the world could fundamentally help ease/lower inflation eventually, going forward,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said.

Meanwhile, Jiaxin Lu, an economist from Continuum Economics, said the implementation of a price freeze also likely slowed inflation.

“Food prices likely stabilized in March, partly due to the twomonth price freeze act by the Philippine government to control prices amid COVID-19 crisis,” Ms. Lu said.

Prices of basic necessities are frozen from March 16 until May 15 following the declaration of a six-month state of calamity due to the COVID -19 outbreak.

Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces, however, said risks of lower rice supply amid the outbreak could stoke inflation in the near to medium term.

“Near to medium-term upside risks to inflation could emanate from rice as Vietnam, the country’s major source of imported rice, halted new rice export contracts as it reviewed their stocks,” Mr. Roces said.

The government is planning to import 300,000 metric tons of rice to ensure there is enough domestic supply during the lockdown.

Aside from this, Mr. Roces warned logistical problems due to the lockdown could threaten food supply.

“Manila ports have also been choked by unclaimed cargo that could cause the terminal to shut down and hamper supply chains and threaten the food supply if logistics solutions are not drawn up soon,” Mr. Roces said.

“Finally, cost-push inflation could happen with slowing output and higher unemployment should the enhanced community quarantine get extended indefinitely,” he added.

Health officials reported that COVID-19 patients in the country reached 2,633 as of Thursday with deaths hitting 107. —