ILO estimates 10.7% decline in incomes due to pandemic

THE International Labor Organization (ILO) said the global pandemic has reduced worker incomes by 10.7% to $3.5 trillion in the first three quarters of the year, without factoring in government aid.

In the sixth edition of its ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, the ILO said lost working hours also exceeded its earlier estimate issued in June by a wide margin.

It said the revised estimate of global working time lost at the end of the second quarter compared with the end of 2019 was 17.3%, equivalent to 495 million full time equivalent (FTE) jobs based on a 48-hour working week. The earlier estimate was for a decline of 14%, or 400 million FTE jobs. In the third quarter, the estimate is for losses of 12.1% or 345 million FTE jobs.

The outlook for the fourth quarter has worsened significantly since the last ILO Monitor was issued, it said. The baseline scenario is for global working-hour losses of 8.6% compared with the end of 2019 which corresponds to 245 million FTE jobs. The previous estimate was for a decline of 4.9% or 140 million FTE jobs.

It said the working-hour losses are driven by workers in developing and emerging economies, who were much more affected than in past crises, the ILO said.

“While many stringent workplace closures have been relaxed, there are significant variations between regions. Ninety-four percent workers are still in countries with some sort of workplace restrictions, and 32% are in countries with closures for all but essential workplaces.

The ILO said in the second quarter, there was a “clear correlation” between the size of the government’s fiscal stimulus package relative to gross domestic product (GDP) and the prevention of working-hour losses. It found that an additional fiscal stimulus of 1% of GDP reduced working hour losses by a further 0.8%.