Just how many airports does the National Capital Region really need?

The pandemic found the government in the midst of an airport building frenzy, no doubt based on ambitious assumptions for financial returns before COVID-19 shut the world down. But now that travel demand is going to be depressed for the foreseeable future and the airlines the airports were meant to serve as gleaming new home bases hanging on precariously, many of the projects could be in for a hard rethink, because by the time they are all built or upgraded, the travel volumes they were designed around might not be there for years.

The plan, as it stood before the outbreak, was to increase the capacities of both Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) and Clark International

Airport (CIA) and build Sangley Point International Airport (SPIA) in Cavite and New Manila International Airport (NMIA) in Bulacan. That would give Metro Manila four international airports servicing its travel demand, just two shy of the record holder London, which has six.

Now, people are expressing doubts whether such ambitious plans are still viable.

“With a combination of strict health protocols, travel bans and restricted household incomes, passenger volume has dropped,” Infrawatch PH convenor Terry L. Ridon said in an e-mail interview. “The viability of the aviation sector is dependent on a gradual easing of the economy through an immediate and effective vaccination program along with already-proven health and safety protocols.”

San Miguel Corp.’s (SMC) Bulacan airport caught a break at least — it was still not operational when the pandemic inflicted massive damage on the travel industry, and can make adjustments based on how its managers project the future of air travel.

“With a construction horizon of five to 10 years, the coronavirus pandemic might be over by then,” Mr. Ridon noted.

“We certainly hope that passenger volume will have reverted to pre-pandemic levels. At present, similar to the broader construction sector, we may expect some construction delays due to limited supplies or personnel due to existing restrictions,” he said.

Eldric Paul A. Peredo, the Civil Aeronautics Board’s Air Operating Rights Division chief, reported at a recent House hearing that international and domestic passengers logged in by air carriers from the first to third quarters of 2020 were only 25% of 2019 levels.

Mr. Ridon believes the government’s multi-airport approach remains viable, with the strategy to decongest NAIA showing results, particularly with the expansion of Clark.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edgar B. Saavedra of Megawide Construction Corp., which had previously negotiated with the government for a contract to rehabilitate NAIA, said the Greater Manila area will be needing more airports anyway because annual passenger volume is expected to increase by more than 65 million in the next five to 10 years.

“Any new airport will always augment or add capacity to the country. Since NAIA is in the southern part of Metro Manila, it will cater not only to Metro Manila but also to Calabarzon. The Bulacan airport will also cater to the northern part of Metro Manila, so Clark will cater up to northern Luzon. All of these airports are complementary to each other,” he said.