May 9 vote: What will the ballots say of the pre-election polls?

VOTERS in the Philippines head out on Monday to cast their ballots for the country’s next leaders, and the results would either confirm or debunk pre-election opinion polls that have themselves been a hot issue during the campaign period.

Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor from the University of the Philippines, said while the polls have indicated a clear majority win for frontrunner Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., there were deficiencies this year compared to the survey scene in previous presidential elections.

“SWS did not conduct election polls this year and Pulse Asia has fewer surveys than in 2016,” she told BusinessWorld in a Viber message, referring to research institution Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia Research, Inc.

“They (Pulse Asia and other opinion polling groups) did not have a survey at the end of April. So, as surveys are snapshots of the voters’ preferences as represented by the sample, we have not captured the last few weeks of the campaign,” she said, noting that 45% of voters decide between April to the actual national election day set on the second Monday of May.

As such, the results of the May 9 elections this year will show if the last few weeks of campaigning, particularly on the ground by volunteers of Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo, made a significant impact, Ms. Atienza said.

The latest survey conducted by independent pollster Pulse Asia in mid-April showed 56% of 2,400 respondents said they would vote for Mr. Marcos if the election was held during that period, while Ms. Robredo was at a distant second with 23%.

Senator and retired boxing champion Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao overtook Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko” M. Domagoso with 7%, gaining a point. The mayor lost 4 points to 4%. Senator Panfilo “Ping” M. Lacson remained in fifth place with 2%.

Pulse Asia and SWS have faced allegations that opinion polls have been rigged. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan