The future of diesel
In the face of environmental concerns like global warming and the global push for clean energy, the story and future of diesel engines is now one fraught with contention and debate. The common discourse seems to lean heavily towards the demise of diesel, given the fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and tightening emission regulations.
I, too, until recently, was of the seemingly mistaken notion that diesel was on the way out. But now I get the impression that I may be wrong. A deeper dive into the subject reveals a more complex narrative, one that suggests that diesel is far from facing its twilight. In fact, it may yet keep its work-horse role in the future of transportation.
Recent comments from car engine industry leaders such as Toyota and Cummins present a compelling argument for the sustained relevance of diesel technology. These discussions shed light on the evolutionary path diesel engines are now taking, one characterized by innovation and efficiency improvements.
Obviously, diesel continues to play a critical role in sectors like farming, mining, logistics, and transportation, particularly in poorer as well as newly industrializing economies. In these specialized sectors, diesel alternatives are not yet viable or commercially feasible. Or alternatives can significantly raise the cost of production.
Japan’s Toyota, a global car giant and a pioneer in hybrid technology, still champions the diesel engine’s longevity, envisioning a future where diesel continues to power the world’s work vehicles. In fact, not long ago, company chairman Akio Toyoda announced the development of a new family of internal combustion engines, indicating that gas and diesel are still very much in.
Moreover, Toyoda believes that purely electric vehicles will never surpass a market share of 30%. Thus, the other 70% of cars are still going to have internal combustion engines, running on gasoline and diesel. Toyota also thinks synthetic fuels and hydrogen could become viable alternatives one day. So, the future of transport is not necessarily just the electric dream.
Toyota’s forecast is perhaps rooted in its recognition of diesel’s efficiency and reliability, particularly in heavy-duty applications where electric alternatives may be impractical due to range and power constraints. Especially in developing countries, where much of public transportation and commercial applications use diesel, the fuel will undergo evolution rather than elimination.
Cummins, a world leader in diesel engine manufacturing, also believes that diesel will remain part of the way forward. The company is in fact now investing more in researching and developing better diesel refining technology, focusing on reducing emissions and enhancing efficiency, while noting the big role that diesel continues to play in heavy industries and transportation.
But Cummins is not necessarily coming to the table with clean hands. Last year, it agreed in principle to pay $1.675 billion in fines for its alleged involvement in the use of emissions defeat devices on nearly a million diesel pickup trucks. The Indiana-based Cummins was also made liable for about $325 million in pollution remedies. Emission defeat devices are also set to be removed from over 600,000 pickup trucks with Cummins engines.
The diesel engine industry is obviously at a crossroads, with competition from electric vehicles and more stringent emission regulations making the development of cleaner engines more urgent. In this sense, the narrative is not one of extinction but adaptation, as diesel engines undergo transformations to reduce their carbon footprint through advanced emission control technologies and the integration of renewable diesel fuels.
The worldwide momentum towards cleaner energy sources is undeniable, despite the seeming backsliding in some economies. But diesel’s entrenchment in agriculture, mining, transport, and logistics illustrates the enormity of the “clean” challenge. The transition requires not only technological breakthroughs but also changes in infrastructure, economics, and society.
I have now come to the realization that diesel will not simply go quietly into the night, even as Paris, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens have previously committed to ban diesel cars from their city centers by 2025. California is following suit. Just recently, the European Parliament also voted to ban the sale of diesel cargo trucks in the European Union (EU) by 2040. Last year, the same lawmakers voted to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035.
But the EU is not the world. Ditto for the United States. Asian economies, with their large populations, will most likely continue to allow diesel and gasoline engines beyond 2040. And the enduring relevance of diesel can be attributed to its advantages in efficiency and power, particularly for heavy-duty and long-haul applications; and superior torque at low RPMs, making them ideal for trucks, buses, and agricultural equipment.
The advent of cleaner diesel technologies and the development of biofuels also represent a pivotal shift in mitigating the environmental impact of diesel engines. Biofuels in particular offer a chance to reduce carbon emissions, enhancing diesel’s sustainability profile. Today’s diesel cars are truly miles away from the slow, clunky, noisy, and smelly smoke belchers of old.
The transition to an electrified future, while inevitable, is a gradual process fraught with challenges, including infrastructure development, energy storage solutions, and the ecological footprint of battery production. Not to mention the disposition of end-of-life batteries, and the fire safety concerns involving EVs involved in accidents.
Diesel’s evolution provides a bridge in this transition, especially in areas where electric alternatives are currently not feasible or economically unviable. But this evolution should show significant results sooner than later. To remain relevant, the diesel engine’s adaptation should quickly align with a broader environmental strategy to address global warming.
The imperative is clear: reduce carbon emissions and dependency on fossil fuels. This is in recognition of the importance of diversifying energy sources, including the role of cleaner diesel, in achieving long-term sustainability goals. The story of the future of diesel is multifaceted, and obsolescence does not seem to be part of it.
It appears that diesel engines are poised to remain a cornerstone in the global energy ecosystem. The path forward demands a balanced approach, one that leverages diesel’s strengths while actively mitigating its environmental impact. Only in an evolved form will diesel continue to be relevant. It should veer away quickly from being the symbol of environmental challenge.